3430 S Chestnut Ave · Newaygo, MI 49337

$39,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 805 sqft · SingleFamily · 30 Days on market

Built 1963 4,766 sqft lot Est $72k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT FIND: WOW ! near the Famous Hardy/Croton Dams/Consumers Dragon Trial and Fishing / Boating / Hot Spots nearby. Escape into Natures Beauty, blacktop road short distance to local shopping stops and to Newago DNTN, shopping/markets/dining places This is an OPPORUNITY TIME for you and with some work/tuning; you could have an excellent get-away/home/summer family meeting place, within the beauty of the North, Blacktop Rods/Nice large shed (''As Is any/all conditions) CELL LISTING AGENT anytime -7-days a week

Key facts

• Local shopping stops
• Large shed
• 4,766 sq ft lot

Tags

• FISHING BOATING HOT SPOTS
• LOCAL SHOPPING STOPS
• SHOPPING MARKETS DINING PLACES
• LARGE SHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water
• Home design: Residential property; Other architectural style
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Built in 1963
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Shed on the property

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Six total rooms; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $528 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($974 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.2% vs local median 2.6% in Newaygo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#470 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools C-, crime D, amenities D-.
• Morley Stanwood Community Schools (rural): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #390 of 540 in MI (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 155 units permitted in Newaygo County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Newaygo County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $39,301 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.69%
• DSCR: 3.52
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $72,450
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3524 Sandra Dr	0.16mi	2/1.0	780 (-3%)	9mo	$69,999	$90	80

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.43×
• Total profit: $27,142
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 60.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.99×
• Total profit: $66,894
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49337

• Home prices YoY: -16.9%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $974 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$16 /mo · $193/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $528

Break-even live

Break-even rent $306

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $550	-5% $539	+0% $528	+5% $516	+10% $505
Rent	-10% $451	-5% $489	+0% $528	+5% $566	+10% $605
Rate	-1.0pp $548	-0.5pp $538	base $528	+0.5pp $517	+1.0pp $507

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $39,900 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,900 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $39,900 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,900 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,900 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $39,900 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $39,900 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,900 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,900 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 10 DOM
17. 2026-05-20
    listed $39,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (514 chars)

    GREAT FIND: WOW ! near the Famous Hardy/Croton Dams/Consumers Dragon Trial and Fishing / Boating / Hot Spots nearby. Escape into Natures Beauty, blacktop road short distance to local shopping stops and to Newago DNTN, shopping/markets/dining places This is an OPPORUNITY TIME for you and with some work/tuning; you could have an excellent get-away/home/summer family meeting place, within the beauty of the North, Blacktop Rods/Nice large shed (''As Is any/all conditions) CELL LISTING AGENT anytime -7-days a week

18. 2026-05-20
    listed $39,900 Active 518-char remark

    Show marketing remark (514 chars)

    GREAT FIND: WOW ! near the Famous Hardy/Croton Dams/Consumers Dragon Trial and Fishing / Boating / Hot Spots nearby. Escape into Natures Beauty, blacktop road short distance to local shopping stops and to Newago DNTN, shopping/markets/dining places This is an OPPORUNITY TIME for you and with some work/tuning; you could have an excellent get-away/home/summer family meeting place, within the beauty of the North, Blacktop Rods/Nice large shed (''As Is any/all conditions) CELL LISTING AGENT anytime -7-days a week

19. 2026-05-20
    listed $39,900 Active 514-char remark

    Show marketing remark (514 chars)

    GREAT FIND: WOW ! near the Famous Hardy/Croton Dams/Consumers Dragon Trial and Fishing / Boating / Hot Spots nearby. Escape into Natures Beauty, blacktop road short distance to local shopping stops and to Newago DNTN, shopping/markets/dining places This is an OPPORUNITY TIME for you and with some work/tuning; you could have an excellent get-away/home/summer family meeting place, within the beauty of the North, Blacktop Rods/Nice large shed (''As Is any/all conditions) CELL LISTING AGENT anytime -7-days a week

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $193 · $16/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $404 · $34/mo
• Expected delta: +$211/yr (+$18/mo · 109.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,692
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$193
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$935
• − Management: −$935
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $6,033
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,448
• After-tax cash flow: $4,885/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morley Stanwood Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2624600
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $40,617
• Composite: 24.03/100
• National rank: #7769
• State rank: #390 of 540 in MI

Livability — Newaygo

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #470
• US rank: #13352

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,030

Population outlook (Newaygo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,371 people
• By 2030: 44,879 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 41,107 · -11.4%
• By 2050: 36,800 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 27,507 · -40.7%
• By 2100: 18,600 · -59.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 14% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Newaygo

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 27.9% · R 70.7% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -38.2pp toward R · 2008: -4.6pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+39.6 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.83%
• Current HPI: 310.1533
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $39,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-20 Listed $39,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-20 Listed $39,900 SW Michigan MLS

Property tax history

-5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $193 · -73.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.