4663 Carlton Golf Dr

Wellington, FL 33449

$299,000C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,998 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Pending · 161 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,794/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$615
• HOA: −$795
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$797
• Net cashflow: $19/mo
• Annual: $227/yr
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.27%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 1.27%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $19 ($227/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $299k).
• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $263k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $49 of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-2k appreciation (-0.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#294 in FL, #4,986 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Panther Run Elementary School (math 85% / reading 82%, grade A+, #60 of 2,144 statewide, top 3%, 787 students, 19% FRL); Polo Park Middle School (math 65% / reading 68%, grade A-, #84 of 571 statewide, top 16%, 1,156 students, 33% FRL); Palm Beach Central High School (math 42% / reading 55%, grade D, #198 of 667 statewide, top 30%, 2,980 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 52% district-wide (21 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 66% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Palm Beach average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Market conditions: 168 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 11 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask is 2748% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.4% in Wellington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.