1148 Hayes Rd

Sherman, TX 75090

$217,500D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 2024 · Manufactured · Active · 228 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,656/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,141
• Tax + insurance: −$295
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $-127/mo
• Annual: $-1,529/yr
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.51%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $60,900

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $218k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-127 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (23.9% below list).
• It's been on market 228 days — a 12% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $166k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,027 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Tom Bean ISD (rural): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #230 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tom Bean El (math 62% / reading 52%, grade C+, #505 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 319 students, 49% FRL); Tom Bean Middle (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #660 of 1,662 statewide, top 41%, 136 students, 46% FRL); Tom Bean H S (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #897 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 211 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 479 active listings in the ZIP; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.7% in Sherman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 228 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.