Is 1148 Hayes Rd in Sherman, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.5% cap rate and $-301/mo modeled cash flow at a $199,900 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 1148 Hayes Rd?

The modeled cap rate is 4.5% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,307/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

F Composite 34.48

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +12.1/15.0
Cash flow +6.9/30.0
Schools +4.5/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.1/5.0
Appreciation +2.5/10.0
Rent growth +1.8/5.0
1% rule +1.5/10.0
DSCR +1.1/10.0
Manufactured-home adj. -3.0

$199,900

1148 Hayes Rd · Sherman, TX 75090

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 24 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2023 Good condition 1.00 ac lot $164/sqft · 16% below area Est $222k · 10% under ↓ 15% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

PRICED TO SELL! Welcome to Old Ida Estates, where comfort meets thoughtful design! Step into the gorgeous open-concept floor plan featuring a kitchen island, farmhouse-style single-basin stainless steel sink, and new stainless steel appliances—all combining style and function. The split-bedroom layout provides separation between living and sleeping spaces, while the primary suite offers a spa-like feel with dual sinks, a separate tub, and a walk-in shower. A full utility room keeps laundry tucked away and organized.

Key facts

Separate soaker tub
Smart panel siding
Dual vanity

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-301 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $147k (26.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (34.6% below list).
Recommended offer: $131k (34.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,027 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-, amenities F.
Tom Bean ISD (rural): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #230 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Tom Bean El (math 62% / reading 52%, grade C+, #505 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 319 students, 49% FRL); Tom Bean Middle (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #660 of 1,662 statewide, top 41%, 136 students, 46% FRL); Tom Bean H S (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #897 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 211 students, 39% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 752 active listings in the ZIP; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $130,659 (34.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.65% ✗
Cap rate: 4.49%
Cash-on-cash: -6.45%
DSCR: 0.71
GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $222,494
List price: $199,900
Delta: -10.16%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1206 Hayes Rd	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,038 (-15%)	3mo	$199,999	$193	69
1184 Hayes Rd	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,475 (+21%)	9mo	$244,990	$166	60
1310 Old Ida Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+6%)	28mo	$246,500	$191	52
359 Calle Cedro Dr	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,344 (+10%)	24mo	$350,000	$260	38
101 Coker Rd	1.31mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+24%)	5mo	$234,900	$156	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -30.7%
Equity multiple: 0.01×
Total profit: $-55,378
Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

IRR: -51.9%
Equity multiple: -0.57×
Total profit: $-87,716
Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 0 active · 1 under contract
Months of supply: 0.0 mo

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75090

Home prices YoY: -20.0%
Rents YoY: -2.7%
Active inventory: 752
Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,307 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
Tax from tax record: −$201 /mo · $2,415/yr
Insurance: −$83
HOA: −$0
Lot rent leased land?: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
Net cashflow: $-301

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,687

Max offer price $146,795

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-187	-5% $-244	+0% $-301	+5% $-357	+10% $-414
Rent	-10% $-404	-5% $-352	+0% $-301	+5% $-249	+10% $-197
Rate	-1.0pp $-200	-0.5pp $-250	base $-301	+0.5pp $-352	+1.0pp $-405

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $49,975
Closing costs: $5,997
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Exterior

Utilities: Septic tank
Home design: Manufactured homeOne story
Construction: Composition roofPillar/post/pier foundation

Interior

Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central electric heatingCentral air conditioningCeiling fan(s)

Listing history 30 events

2026-11-08

days on market $199,900 Active 24 DOM
2026-11-07

days on market $199,900 Active 23 DOM
2026-11-06

days on market $199,900 Active 22 DOM
2026-11-05

days on market $199,900 Active 21 DOM
2026-11-04

days on market $199,900 Active 20 DOM
2026-11-02

days on market $199,900 Active 18 DOM
2026-11-01

days on market $199,900 Active 17 DOM
2026-10-31

days on market $199,900 Active 16 DOM
2026-10-30

days on market $199,900 Active 15 DOM
2026-10-29

days on market $199,900 Active 14 DOM
2026-10-28

days on market $199,900 Active 13 DOM
2026-10-27

days on market $199,900 Active 12 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $199,900 Active 11 DOM
2026-10-25

days on market $199,900 Active 10 DOM
2026-10-24

days on market $199,900 Active 9 DOM
2026-10-23

days on market $199,900 Active 8 DOM
2026-10-22

days on market $199,900 Active 7 DOM
2026-10-21

days on market $199,900 Active 6 DOM
2026-10-20

days on market $199,900 Active 5 DOM
2026-10-19

days on market $199,900 Active 4 DOM
2026-10-18

days on market $199,900 Active 3 DOM
2026-10-17

days on market $199,900 Active 2 DOM
2026-10-15

pricedays on marketlisting id $199,900 Active 1 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $217,500 Active 228 DOM
2026-06-01

days on market $217,500 Active 227 DOM
2026-05-31

days on market $217,500 Active 226 DOM
2026-05-30

days on market $217,500 Active 225 DOM
2026-04-01

price $217,500 1995-char remark
2026-01-16

price $232,500 1995-char remark
2025-10-15

listed $235,000 Active 1995-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax: $2,415 · $201/mo
Projected year-2 tax: $3,658 · $305/mo
Expected delta: +$1,243/yr (+$104/mo · 51.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $15,679
− Mortgage interest: −$11,198
− Property taxes: −$2,415
− Insurance: −$1,000
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,254
− Management: −$1,254
− Depreciation: −$5,815
Taxable loss: −$7,257

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,742
After-tax cash flow: $-1,866/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,080–$18,240 screening

This manufactured home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a cosmetic rehab level and requires minimal repairs and maintenance. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior siding and landscaping improvements to enhance curb appeal and attract more renters. The home is move-in ready and has a good resale value.

Value-add opportunities

Resale Painting exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more renters ↑
Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Fresh flooring can improve the overall aesthetic and functionality ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Tom Bean El C+ TX #505/4,322 Nat'l #8,534/41,679 Middle Tom Bean Middle F TX #660/1,662 Nat'l #6,151/14,009 High Tom Bean H S F TX #897/1,632 Nat'l #9,001/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Tom Bean ISD
NCES district ID: 4842930
Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
Median HH income: $57,734
Composite: 40.21/100
National rank: #3782
State rank: #230 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Sherman

Score: 61/100
State rank: #1027
US rank: #18243

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Grayson County · 134,540 people
City population: 54,936
Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
Population (ZIP): 26,594
Household income: $55,543
Rent vs Own: 42.8% rent · 57.2% own
Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 134,540 people
By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 17% Black 11%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -69.00%
Current HPI: 276.5739
Rent YoY: ▼ -2.70%
Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-14.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

2026-10-15 Listed $199,900 LAAR
2026-05-28 Listing Removed — NTREIS
2026-04-01 Price Changed $217,500 NTREIS
2026-01-16 Price Changed $232,500 NTREIS
2025-10-15 Listed $235,000 NTREIS
2024-04-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,415 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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