5016 Indian Shore Dr

Brownsville, TX 78526

$320,000D-

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,573 sqft · Built 2011 · SingleFamily · Active · 111 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,750/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax + insurance: −$583
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$578
• Net cashflow: $-88/mo
• Annual: $-1,055/yr
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.18%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $89,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $320k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-88 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $304k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $275k (14.1% below list).
• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $275k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#62 in TX, #2,311 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, crime D-, employment F.
• Brownsville ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #710 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pena El (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 472 students, 88% FRL); Garcia Middle (math 17% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 893 students, 87% FRL); Rivera Early College H S (math 12% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,250 of 1,632 statewide, top 77%, 2,254 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools at 86% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 416 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,750/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 1063% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.