5016 Indian Shore Dr · Brownsville, TX 78526

$320,000

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,573 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 111 Days on market

Built 2011 10,478 sqft lot $124/sqft · at area comps Est $308k · at est. ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +5.8/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Modern-style home in a gated subdivision, offering strong construction and great potential at an excellent price. The property is being sold as is and does need work, making it a perfect opportunity for an investor or buyer looking to remodel in an upscale neighborhood. It features 3 bedrooms, each with its own full bath and walk-in closet, plus a half bath for guests and a separate maid's quarters. The home includes ceramic tile flooring, granite countertops in the kitchen and bathrooms, high ceilings, large windows, and plenty of natural light. There is a spacious living area, formal dining room, and a built-in bar for entertaining. Situated on a 0.24-acre lot and located off Ruben Torres Blvd near SpaceX, the Port of Brownsville, LNG companies, shopping, hospitals, and more. Flood Zone X.

Key facts

• Large windows
• Strong construction
• Gated subdivision

Tags

• GATED SUBDIVISION
• STRONG CONSTRUCTION
• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• HIGH CEILINGS
• LARGE WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-88 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $304k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $275k (14.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $275k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#62 in TX, #2,311 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, crime D-, employment F.
• Brownsville ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #710 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pena El (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 472 students, 88% FRL); Garcia Middle (math 17% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 893 students, 87% FRL); Rivera Early College H S (math 12% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,250 of 1,632 statewide, top 77%, 2,254 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools at 86% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 416 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,750/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 1063% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $275,037 (14.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.18%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $308,226
• List price: $320,000
• Delta: 3.82%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5228 Key West Crst	0.13mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,468 (-4%)	8mo	$390,000	$158	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-58,015
• Equity at exit: $47,713

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-60,030
• Equity at exit: $27,668

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78526

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$449 /mo · $5,391/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$578
• Net cashflow: $-88

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,862

Max offer price $304,473

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $93	-5% $3	+0% $-88	+5% $-178	+10% $-269
Rent	-10% $-305	-5% $-197	+0% $-88	+5% $21	+10% $129
Rate	-1.0pp $73	-0.5pp $-7	base $-88	+0.5pp $-171	+1.0pp $-255

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5612 Hedgerow Ct Brownsville, TX	3.0	3.5	1947	$2,800	$1.44	45d	1	0.19mi
5612 Hedgerow Ct Brownsville, TX	3.0	3.5	1947	$2,800	$1.44	15d	1	0.20mi
5320 Oakley St Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.5	1936	$2,650	$1.37	15d	1	0.23mi
5684 Heron Cv Brownsville, TX	3.0	3.0	2690	$3,500	$1.30	45d	1	0.59mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $320,000 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $320,000 Active 108 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $320,000 Active 107 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $320,000 Active 106 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $320,000 Active 105 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $320,000 Active 103 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $320,000 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $320,000 Active 100 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $320,000 Active 99 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $320,000 Active 98 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $320,000 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $320,000 Active 94 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $320,000 Active 93 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $320,000 Active 92 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $320,000 Active 91 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $320,000 Active 90 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $320,000 Active 89 DOM
18. 2026-04-21
    price $320,000 802-char remark

    Show marketing remark (802 chars)

    Modern-style home in a gated subdivision, offering strong construction and great potential at an excellent price. The property is being sold as is and does need work, making it a perfect opportunity for an investor or buyer looking to remodel in an upscale neighborhood. It features 3 bedrooms, each with its own full bath and walk-in closet, plus a half bath for guests and a separate maid's quarters. The home includes ceramic tile flooring, granite countertops in the kitchen and bathrooms, high ceilings, large windows, and plenty of natural light. There is a spacious living area, formal dining room, and a built-in bar for entertaining. Situated on a 0.24-acre lot and located off Ruben Torres Blvd near SpaceX, the Port of Brownsville, LNG companies, shopping, hospitals, and more. Flood Zone X.

19. 2026-03-02
    listed $340,000 Active 802-char remark

    Show marketing remark (802 chars)

    Modern-style home in a gated subdivision, offering strong construction and great potential at an excellent price. The property is being sold as is and does need work, making it a perfect opportunity for an investor or buyer looking to remodel in an upscale neighborhood. It features 3 bedrooms, each with its own full bath and walk-in closet, plus a half bath for guests and a separate maid's quarters. The home includes ceramic tile flooring, granite countertops in the kitchen and bathrooms, high ceilings, large windows, and plenty of natural light. There is a spacious living area, formal dining room, and a built-in bar for entertaining. Situated on a 0.24-acre lot and located off Ruben Torres Blvd near SpaceX, the Port of Brownsville, LNG companies, shopping, hospitals, and more. Flood Zone X.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,391 · $449/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,856 · $488/mo
• Expected delta: +$465/yr (+$39/mo · 8.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,004
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$5,391
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,640
• − Management: −$2,640
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$6,501
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,560
• After-tax cash flow: $506/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811680
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $30,490
• Composite: 21.8/100
• National rank: #8249
• State rank: #710 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brownsville

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #62
• US rank: #2311

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brownsville, TX
• County: Cameron County · 310,734 people
• City population: 212,132
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• Population (ZIP): 60,012
• Household income: $70,565
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1063.0

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 93% Two or more races 45% White 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 87%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 19% English-only · Spanish 79% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.28%
• Current HPI: 220.5233
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.77%
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $320,000 RGVMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $340,000 RGVMLS

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,391 · -9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.