2115 Pacific Loon Ln

Woodloch, TX 77385

$269,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,747 sqft · Built 2018 · SingleFamily · Pending · 121 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,046/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax + insurance: −$533
• HOA: −$32
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-359/mo
• Annual: $-4,313/yr
• Cap rate: 4.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.73%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $75,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $269k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-359 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (23.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (23.9% below list).
• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $205k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#653 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 319 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.9% in Woodloch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.