2115 Pacific Loon Ln · Woodloch, TX 77385

$269,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,747 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 121 Days on market

Built 2018 $154/sqft · 10% below area Est $300k · 10% under $32/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming single-story home in Conroe's Montgomery Creek Ranch. This property features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage on a spacious corner lot. With high ceilings and an open floor plan, this home boasts a large fenced backyard, perfect for outdoor entertaining. The kitchen offers granite countertops, ample cabinet space, a gas stove, and a walk-in pantry. The primary bedroom is generously sized, with a large garden tub, separate shower, private potty, and a walk-in closet. Enjoy the covered patio overlooking the backyard. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity! The neighborhood offers a community pool, park, playground, and access to walking trails. Minutes from The Woodlands! Home has never flooded. BRAND NEW CARPET INSTALLED!

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Granite countertops
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• LARGE FENCED BACKYARD
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-344 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (22.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (23.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (23.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.9% in Woodloch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#653 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 316 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,605 (23.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.47%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,942
• List price: $269,000
• Delta: -10.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2115 Pacific Loon Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,747 (0%)	0mo	$269,000	$154	100
16373 Olive Sparrow Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,774 (+2%)	5mo	$270,000	$152	86
2506 River Rdg	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,688 (-3%)	3mo	$235,000	$139	83
2625 N Woodloch St	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,762 (+1%)	8mo	$225,000	$128	73
16836 Northern Flicker Trl	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,724 (-1%)	10mo	$259,000	$150	72
2627 N Woodloch St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,842 (+5%)	6mo	$209,900	$114	66
9924 Lace Flower Way	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,794 (+3%)	9mo	$235,000	$131	63
16758 N Blue Jay Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,814 (+4%)	1mo	$240,000	$132	61
16790 N Rail Dr	0.59mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,791 (+2%)	0mo	$265,000	$148	59
2540 River Rdg	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,905 (+9%)	5mo	$160,000	$84	58
2524 River Rdg	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,990 (+14%)	3mo	$260,000	$131	58
9903 Valance Way	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,958 (+12%)	7mo	$275,000	$140	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-63,521
• Equity at exit: $40,109

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-75,359
• Equity at exit: $23,258

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77385

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 316
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,066 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax from tax record: −$421 /mo · $5,052/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $-344

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,501

Max offer price $208,314

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2662 S Woodloch St Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	2046	$1,960	$0.96	14d	1	0.44mi
2657 S Woodloch St Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1920	$1,910	$0.99	11d	1	0.48mi
16782 N Thrasher Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2137	$2,065	$0.97	14d	1	0.54mi
9819 Kiwi Ln Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1434	$1,826	$1.27	7d	1	0.77mi
17116 Harpers Trce Conroe, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1083	$1,948	$1.80	1d	28	0.81mi
17011 Harpers Way Conroe, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	922	$1,683	$1.83	1d	14	1.40mi
17011 Harper's Way Unit 17068 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1073	$1,475	$1.37	43d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr
• Likely covers: gaspool

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 772-char remark

   Show marketing remark (772 chars)

   Welcome to this charming single-story home in Conroe's Montgomery Creek Ranch. This property features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage on a spacious corner lot. With high ceilings and an open floor plan, this home boasts a large fenced backyard, perfect for outdoor entertaining. The kitchen offers granite countertops, ample cabinet space, a gas stove, and a walk-in pantry. The primary bedroom is generously sized, with a large garden tub, separate shower, private potty, and a walk-in closet. Enjoy the covered patio overlooking the backyard. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity! The neighborhood offers a community pool, park, playground, and access to walking trails. Minutes from The Woodlands! Home has never flooded. BRAND NEW CARPET INSTALLED!

2. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 772-char remark

   Show marketing remark (772 chars)

   Welcome to this charming single-story home in Conroe's Montgomery Creek Ranch. This property features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage on a spacious corner lot. With high ceilings and an open floor plan, this home boasts a large fenced backyard, perfect for outdoor entertaining. The kitchen offers granite countertops, ample cabinet space, a gas stove, and a walk-in pantry. The primary bedroom is generously sized, with a large garden tub, separate shower, private potty, and a walk-in closet. Enjoy the covered patio overlooking the backyard. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity! The neighborhood offers a community pool, park, playground, and access to walking trails. Minutes from The Woodlands! Home has never flooded. BRAND NEW CARPET INSTALLED!

3. 2026-04-06
   price $269,000 772-char remark

   Show marketing remark (772 chars)

   Welcome to this charming single-story home in Conroe's Montgomery Creek Ranch. This property features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage on a spacious corner lot. With high ceilings and an open floor plan, this home boasts a large fenced backyard, perfect for outdoor entertaining. The kitchen offers granite countertops, ample cabinet space, a gas stove, and a walk-in pantry. The primary bedroom is generously sized, with a large garden tub, separate shower, private potty, and a walk-in closet. Enjoy the covered patio overlooking the backyard. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity! The neighborhood offers a community pool, park, playground, and access to walking trails. Minutes from The Woodlands! Home has never flooded. BRAND NEW CARPET INSTALLED!

4. 2026-02-14
   price $275,000 772-char remark

   Show marketing remark (772 chars)

   Welcome to this charming single-story home in Conroe's Montgomery Creek Ranch. This property features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage on a spacious corner lot. With high ceilings and an open floor plan, this home boasts a large fenced backyard, perfect for outdoor entertaining. The kitchen offers granite countertops, ample cabinet space, a gas stove, and a walk-in pantry. The primary bedroom is generously sized, with a large garden tub, separate shower, private potty, and a walk-in closet. Enjoy the covered patio overlooking the backyard. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity! The neighborhood offers a community pool, park, playground, and access to walking trails. Minutes from The Woodlands! Home has never flooded. BRAND NEW CARPET INSTALLED!

5. 2026-01-13
   listed $280,000 Active 772-char remark

   Show marketing remark (772 chars)

   Welcome to this charming single-story home in Conroe's Montgomery Creek Ranch. This property features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage on a spacious corner lot. With high ceilings and an open floor plan, this home boasts a large fenced backyard, perfect for outdoor entertaining. The kitchen offers granite countertops, ample cabinet space, a gas stove, and a walk-in pantry. The primary bedroom is generously sized, with a large garden tub, separate shower, private potty, and a walk-in closet. Enjoy the covered patio overlooking the backyard. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity! The neighborhood offers a community pool, park, playground, and access to walking trails. Minutes from The Woodlands! Home has never flooded. BRAND NEW CARPET INSTALLED!

6. 2018-04-13
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,052 · $421/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,052 · $421/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,793
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$5,052
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,983
• − Management: −$1,983
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable loss: −$8,848
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,124
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,999/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Woodloch

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #653
• US rank: #12310

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,156
• Household income: $117,118
• Rent vs Own: 24.7% rent · 75.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 471.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 16% Black 11% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.09%
• Current HPI: 239.9434
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.88%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $269,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $280,000 HARMLS
• 2018-04-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+49.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,052 · -2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.