9 Olivia Ln

Conway, AR 72032

$179,000D

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,960 sqft · Built 2016 · Manufactured · Active · 154 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,354/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax + insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $20/mo
• Annual: $238/yr
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.47%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $50,120

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $20 ($238/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (24.4% below list).
• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $135k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#71 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Conway School District (urban): math 43% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #36 of 238 in AR (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Preston & Florence Mattison Elem. School (math 37% / reading 27%, grade F, #278 of 454 statewide, top 64%, 432 students, 77% FRL); Bob Courtway Middle School (math 31% / reading 43%, grade F, #109 of 201 statewide, top 56%, 498 students, 72% FRL); Conway High West (math 37% / reading 50%, grade F, #36 of 292 statewide, top 12%, 2,181 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 41% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 186 active listings in the ZIP; 865 units permitted in Faulkner County in 2024 (451 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Faulkner County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $49k; list at $179k implies a 265% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.0% in Conway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.