9 Olivia Ln · Conway, AR 72032

$179,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 154 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2016 4.34 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great piece of land just outside the city limits. This land has already passed a perk test and seller has had a current survey ( 2yrs & property is still marked) Address for home can be either #7 or #9 Olivia Lane depending on where buyer would build a home. Hardwoods and some cleared.

Key facts

• Cabinet space
• Storage shed
• Large island

Tags

• STORAGE SHED
• CHICKEN COOP
• GREAT ROOM
• KITCHEN DINING COMBO
• CABINET SPACE
• LARGE ISLAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 4.34 acres; Approximate living area reported from tax records
• Financial info: Financing options: conventional, cash, or Rural Development

Exterior

• Parking: Parking pads
• Security: Video surveillance
• Utilities: Public water; Septic system; Municipal electric service (Entergy); Cable internet available
• Home design: Double wide mobile home on a permanent foundation
• Construction: Metal/vinyl siding; Composition roof; Crawl space foundation; Built as a double wide with permanent foundation
• Exterior features: Outside storage area; Guttering; Video surveillance; Gravel road/drive access; Sloped, rural property not in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing stove; Electric range; Dishwasher; Pantry; Refrigerator stays
• Bedrooms: Walk-in closet(s)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Washer and dryer connections (electric dryer); Electric water heater; Smoke detectors; Window treatments; Walk-in closets; Ceiling fans; Walk-in shower; Breakfast bar; Wired for high-speed internet; Kitchen counters with Formica; Insulated windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer connection; Dryer connection (electric)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $20 ($238/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (24.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.0% in Conway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#71 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Conway School District (urban): math 43% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #36 of 238 in AR (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Preston & Florence Mattison Elem. School (math 37% / reading 27%, grade F, #278 of 454 statewide, top 64%, 432 students, 77% FRL); Bob Courtway Middle School (math 31% / reading 43%, grade F, #109 of 201 statewide, top 56%, 498 students, 72% FRL); Conway High West (math 37% / reading 50%, grade F, #36 of 292 statewide, top 12%, 2,181 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 41% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 186 active listings in the ZIP; 865 units permitted in Faulkner County in 2024 (451 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Faulkner County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $49k; list at $179k implies a 265% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,371 (24.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.47%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-30,313
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-34,940
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72032

• Home prices YoY: -17.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,354 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $436/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,329

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $121	-5% $70	+0% $20	+5% $-31	+10% $-82
Rent	-10% $-87	-5% $-34	+0% $20	+5% $73	+10% $127
Rate	-1.0pp $110	-0.5pp $65	base $20	+0.5pp $-27	+1.0pp $-74

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-23
   days on market $179,000 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-22
   days on market $179,000 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 150 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 149 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 148 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,000 Active 145 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,000 Active 142 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 141 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,000 Active 140 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,000 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,000 Active 135 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 134 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 133 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 132 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 131 DOM
17. 2026-03-23
    price $179,000
18. 2026-03-09
    price $189,000
19. 2026-02-21
    price $195,000
20. 2026-01-13
    listed $215,000 New Listing
21. 2016-09-13
    status Under Contract 292-char remark

    Show marketing remark (292 chars)

    Great piece of land just outside the city limits. This land has already passed a perk test and seller has had a current survey ( 2yrs & property is still marked) Address for home can be either #7 or #9 Olivia Lane depending on where buyer would build a home. Hardwoods and some cleared.

22. 2016-09-08
    soldstatus $49,000 Sold 292-char remark

    Show marketing remark (292 chars)

    Great piece of land just outside the city limits. This land has already passed a perk test and seller has had a current survey ( 2yrs & property is still marked) Address for home can be either #7 or #9 Olivia Lane depending on where buyer would build a home. Hardwoods and some cleared.

23. 2016-06-03
    historical Take Backups 292-char remark

    Show marketing remark (292 chars)

    Great piece of land just outside the city limits. This land has already passed a perk test and seller has had a current survey ( 2yrs & property is still marked) Address for home can be either #7 or #9 Olivia Lane depending on where buyer would build a home. Hardwoods and some cleared.

24. 2016-04-05
    listed $49,750 New Listing 292-char remark

    Show marketing remark (292 chars)

    Great piece of land just outside the city limits. This land has already passed a perk test and seller has had a current survey ( 2yrs & property is still marked) Address for home can be either #7 or #9 Olivia Lane depending on where buyer would build a home. Hardwoods and some cleared.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $436 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,146 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: +$709/yr (+$59/mo · 162.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,245
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$436
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,300
• − Management: −$1,300
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$2,920
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$701
• After-tax cash flow: $938/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conway School District
• NCES district ID: 0504590
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 38.27/100
• National rank: #4236
• State rank: #36 of 238 in AR

Livability — Conway

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #71
• US rank: #8673

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Faulkner County · 103,634 people
• City population: 84,754
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• Population (ZIP): 34,469
• Household income: $64,695
• Rent vs Own: 36.6% rent · 63.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 916.0

Population outlook (Faulkner County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,985 people
• By 2030: 148,264 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 166,010 · +19.4%
• By 2050: 183,362 · +31.9%
• By 2075: 224,593 · +61.6%
• By 2100: 250,603 · +80.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 15% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Faulkner

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.3) · D 32.6% · R 64.9% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -25.3pp · 2024: -32.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.3 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+31.6 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+25.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.15%
• Current HPI: 234.6331
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.15%
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+259.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $179,000 CARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $189,000 CARMLS
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $195,000 CARMLS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $215,000 CARMLS
• 2016-09-13 Pending — CARMLS
• 2016-09-08 Sold (MLS) $49,000 CARMLS
• 2016-06-03 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2016-04-05 Listed $49,750 CARMLS

Property tax history

+40.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $436 · -11.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.