974 11th Ave

Estell Manor, NJ 08330

$389,000D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,232 sqft · Built 1962 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,603/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,040
• Tax + insurance: −$538
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$547
• Net cashflow: $-522/mo
• Annual: $-6,261/yr
• Cap rate: 4.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.75%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $108,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $389k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-522 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (23.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (33.1% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($383k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $260k (33.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $42k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $39k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#414 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Estell Manor School District (rural): math 40% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #383 of 612 in NJ (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Estell Manor Elementary School (math 17% / reading 52%, grade F, #582 of 1,303 statewide, top 49%, 177 students, 16% FRL) — zoned schools at 16% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Estell Manor School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 244 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 672 units permitted in Atlantic County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Atlantic County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $190k; list at $389k implies a 105% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$67k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.