974 11th Ave · Estell Manor, NJ 08330

$389,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1962

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained rancher with hardwood floors throughout. Spacious screened in porch, plus full basement, partially finished and detached garage/workshop. Seller installed a new septic in 2016. Move in ready. Estelle Manor Schools.

Key facts

• Kayak launches
• Gas stove
• Single-level living

Tags

• ESTELL MANOR SCHOOL DISTRICT
• ESTELL MANOR PARK
• HIKING TRAILS
• KAYAK LAUNCHES
• SINGLE-LEVEL LIVING
• GAS STOVE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lead-based paint disclosure on file; Seller's property condition disclosure on file

Exterior

• Parking: One-and-a-half car garage; Exterior parking for three or more cars
• Utilities: Well water; Septic sewer; Gas water heater
• Home design: Single-family property; Property listed for sale
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Screened porch; Blacktop driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas stove; Microwave; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen with pantry
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on first floor
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (natural gas)
• Interior features: Den/TV room; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Recreation/family room; Partially finished basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $389k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-522 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (23.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (33.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (33.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 6.1% in Estell Manor — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#414 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Estell Manor School District (rural): math 40% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #383 of 612 in NJ (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Estell Manor Elementary School (math 17% / reading 52%, grade F, #582 of 1,303 statewide, top 49%, 177 students, 16% FRL) — zoned schools at 16% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Estell Manor School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 244 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 672 units permitted in Atlantic County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $42k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $39k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Atlantic County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$67k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($383k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $190k; list at $389k implies a 105% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $260,290 (33.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.75%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $178,601
• Equity at exit: $350,442

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.07×
• Total profit: $552,025
• Equity at exit: $755,741

Cash invested: $108,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08330

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 244
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,603 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,040
• Tax from tax record: −$376 /mo · $4,512/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$547
• Net cashflow: $-522

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,263

Max offer price $296,831

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-302	-5% $-412	+0% $-522	+5% $-632	+10% $-742
Rent	-10% $-727	-5% $-625	+0% $-522	+5% $-419	+10% $-316
Rate	-1.0pp $-326	-0.5pp $-423	base $-522	+0.5pp $-623	+1.0pp $-725

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,250
• Closing costs: $11,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $389,000 Under Contract 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $389,000 Under Contract 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $389,000 Under Contract 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $389,000 Under Contract 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $389,000 Under Contract 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $389,000 Under Contract 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $389,000 Under Contract 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $389,000 Under Contract 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $389,000 Under Contract 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $389,000 Under Contract 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $389,000 Under Contract 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $389,000 Under Contract 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $389,000 Under Contract 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $389,000 Under Contract 12 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $389,000 Under Contract 11 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $389,000 Under Contract 10 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    statusdays on market $389,000 Under Contract 9 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $389,000 Active 8 DOM
19. 2026-05-21
    listed $389,000 Active
20. 2019-10-21
    soldstatus $189,900
21. 2019-08-31
    historical 230-char remark

    Show marketing remark (230 chars)

    Well maintained rancher with hardwood floors throughout. Spacious screened in porch, plus full basement, partially finished and detached garage/workshop. Seller installed a new septic in 2016. Move in ready. Estelle Manor Schools.

22. 2019-08-30
    soldstatus $189,900 Closed 230-char remark

    Show marketing remark (230 chars)

    Well maintained rancher with hardwood floors throughout. Spacious screened in porch, plus full basement, partially finished and detached garage/workshop. Seller installed a new septic in 2016. Move in ready. Estelle Manor Schools.

23. 2019-07-12
    status Pending 230-char remark

    Show marketing remark (230 chars)

    Well maintained rancher with hardwood floors throughout. Spacious screened in porch, plus full basement, partially finished and detached garage/workshop. Seller installed a new septic in 2016. Move in ready. Estelle Manor Schools.

24. 2019-06-28
    listed $189,900 Active 230-char remark

    Show marketing remark (230 chars)

    Well maintained rancher with hardwood floors throughout. Spacious screened in porch, plus full basement, partially finished and detached garage/workshop. Seller installed a new septic in 2016. Move in ready. Estelle Manor Schools.

25. 1982-06-01
    soldstatus $57,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,512 · $376/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,099 · $592/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,587/yr (+$216/mo · 57.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,235
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,790
• − Property taxes: −$4,512
• − Insurance: −$1,945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,499
• − Management: −$2,499
• − Depreciation: −$11,316
• Taxable loss: −$13,326
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,198
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,063/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Estell Manor School District
• NCES district ID: 3404860
• Math proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $77,037
• Composite: 45.38/100
• National rank: #5715
• State rank: #383 of 612 in NJ

Livability — Estell Manor

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #414
• US rank: #14535

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Estell Manor, NJ
• County: Atlantic County · 143,611 people
• City population: 1,269
• Metro: Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 29,972
• Household income: $77,167
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1003.0

Population outlook (Atlantic County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 268,948 people
• By 2030: 264,497 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 252,261 · -6.2%
• By 2050: 237,846 · -11.6%
• By 2075: 210,650 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 180,234 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Atlantic

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 50.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: 15.1pp · 2024: -3.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: D+6.2 2012: D+17.2 2008: D+15.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.58%
• Current HPI: 308.5148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+576.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $389,000 SJSRMLS
• 2019-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $189,900 Public Records
• 2019-08-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-08-30 Sold (MLS) $189,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-07-12 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-06-28 Listed $189,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1982-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $57,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,512 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.