201 Nosben Frk

South Williamson, KY 41514

$85,000B

15 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,006 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,116/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax + insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $282/mo
• Annual: $3,384/yr
• Cap rate: 11.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.57%
• DSCR: 1.78
• 1% rule: 1.31%
• Cash to close: $23,800

Investor read

• This is a 15-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $282 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $899 appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#193 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pike County (rural): math 24% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #98 of 165 in KY (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Belfry Elementary (math 27% / reading 40%, grade F, #334 of 676 statewide, top 50%, 592 students, 68% FRL); Belfry Middle School (math 27% / reading 44%, grade F, #94 of 217 statewide, top 44%, 349 students, 75% FRL); Belfry High School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 531 students, 62% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pike County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $64k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.