201 Nosben Frk · South Williamson, KY 41514

$85,000

15 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,006 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1970 4,356 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Looking for a home with space, character, and potential? This brick ranch offers over 1,600+/- sq ft of living space featuring 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, a utility room, and a versatile flex room. A few finishing touches will allow the next owner to add their own style and make the space truly their own. Outside, enjoy a covered BBQ area, koi pond, partially fenced yard, and ample space for relaxing or entertaining. A great opportunity to personalize a home with desirable indoor and outdoor features.

Key facts

• Koi pond
• Utility room
• Flex room

Tags

• BRICK RANCH
• UTILITY ROOM
• FLEX ROOM
• COVERED BBQ AREA
• KOI POND
• PARTIALLY FENCED YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residential property
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Fenced yard; Metal roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Floor furnace heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Laminate flooring; Eight total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 15-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $282 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#193 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pike County (rural): math 24% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #98 of 165 in KY (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Belfry Elementary (math 27% / reading 40%, grade F, #334 of 676 statewide, top 50%, 592 students, 68% FRL); Belfry Middle School (math 27% / reading 44%, grade F, #94 of 217 statewide, top 44%, 349 students, 75% FRL); Belfry High School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 531 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $899 appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $64k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.57%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.06% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $19,816
• Equity at exit: $29,272

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.38×
• Total profit: $56,742
• Equity at exit: $39,097

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41514

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,116 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $628/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $282

Break-even live

Break-even rent $759

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   remarks 503-char remark
6. 2026-06-14
   listed $85,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $628 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $731 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$103/yr (+$9/mo · 16.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,398
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$628
• − Insurance: −$1,222
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,072
• − Management: −$1,072
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $2,169
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$521
• After-tax cash flow: $2,864/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pike County
• NCES district ID: 2104800
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $32,601
• Composite: 26.14/100
• National rank: #7276
• State rank: #98 of 165 in KY

Livability — South Williamson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #193
• US rank: #9670

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 301
• Population (ZIP): 2,590

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,108 people
• By 2030: 51,235 · -7.0%
• By 2040: 43,573 · -20.9%
• By 2050: 36,797 · -33.2%
• By 2075: 24,330 · -55.9%
• By 2100: 15,611 · -71.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.4) · D 16.8% · R 82.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -51.6pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -65.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+62.8 2012: R+50.5 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• Current HPI: 111.7949
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+32.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $85,000 EKAR
• 2007-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $628 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.