29774 Liars Loop Unit Cabis 1-3

Bent Tree Harbor, MO 65355

$201,750D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Active · 46 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,325/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,058
• Tax + insurance: −$336
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $-348/mo
• Annual: $-4,171/yr
• Cap rate: 4.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.38%
• DSCR: 0.67
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $56,490

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $202k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-348 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $151k (24.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (34.3% below list).
• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $132k (34.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Warsaw R-IX (rural): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #222 of 324 in MO (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: John Boise Middle School (math 37% / reading 40%, grade F, #202 of 391 statewide, top 54%, 278 students, 99% FRL); Warsaw High School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #247 of 521 statewide, top 55%, 403 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 61% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 275 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Benton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.