2514 Churchill St

Houston, TX 77009

$204,999D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 916 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 219 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,794/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax + insurance: −$471
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $-128/mo
• Annual: $-1,539/yr
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.68%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $57,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-128 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (12.5% below list).
• It's been on market 219 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $179k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ketelsen El (math 18% / reading 26%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 445 students, 96% FRL); Marshall Middle (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,491 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 607 students, 97% FRL); Northside H S (math 15% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,389 of 1,632 statewide, top 86%, 1,168 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 605 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $205k implies a 460% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 219 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?