2514 Churchill St · Houston, TX 77009

$204,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 916 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 219 Days on market

Built 1950 2,748 sqft lot $224/sqft · 19% below area Est $253k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A great opportunity just minutes from downtown! Located only a minutes from downtown and minutes from the bike trail. Ideal for an investor or builder looking to capitalize on the area's rapid development. You may choose to tear down existing structure and build your new home, this property offers immense potential in a fast up and coming neighborhood with new construction and major renovations happening all around. NO HOA & NO FLOOD ZONE.

Key facts

• Bike trail
• New construction
• Major renovations

Tags

• MINUTES FROM DOWNTOWN
• BIKE TRAIL
• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• MAJOR RENOVATIONS
• NO HOA
• NO FLOOD ZONE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-128 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (12.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ketelsen El (math 18% / reading 26%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 445 students, 96% FRL); Marshall Middle (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,491 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 607 students, 97% FRL); Northside H S (math 15% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,389 of 1,632 statewide, top 86%, 1,168 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 605 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 219 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $205k implies a 460% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,451 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 219 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.68%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $252,629
• List price: $204,999
• Delta: -18.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2312 Fletcher St	0.14mi	2/1.0	996 (+9%)	12mo	$150,000	$151	69
206 Goldenrod St	0.37mi	1/1.0 (-1)	876 (-4%)	11mo	$380,000	$434	62
217 Teetshorn St	0.55mi	2/1.0	1,026 (+12%)	0mo	$549,000	$535	54
3905 Cotswold St	0.74mi	2/1.0	912 (-0%)	16mo	$250,000	$274	52
2007 Cochran St	0.63mi	1/1.0 (-1)	984 (+7%)	4mo	$175,000	$178	50
105 Emerald Ct	0.65mi	2/1.5	1,000 (+9%)	18mo	$299,000	$299	37
2604 Cochran St	0.64mi	2/1.0	1,048 (+14%)	12mo	$305,000	$291	36
519 Ridge St	0.67mi	2/1.0	1,042 (+14%)	12mo	$495,000	$475	36
3802 Searle Dr	0.75mi	2/1.0	796 (-13%)	18mo	$212,000	$266	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.84% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-45,098
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-64,358
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77009

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 605
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,795 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$385 /mo · $4,625/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $-128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,957

Max offer price $182,344

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-12	-5% $-70	+0% $-128	+5% $-186	+10% $-244
Rent	-10% $-270	-5% $-199	+0% $-128	+5% $-57	+10% $14
Rate	-1.0pp $-25	-0.5pp $-76	base $-128	+0.5pp $-181	+1.0pp $-235

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2623 Keene St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	965	$3,280	$3.40	18d	44	0.02mi
2627 N Main St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	697	$1,027	$1.47	45d	1	0.07mi
2316 N Main St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	696	$1,515	$2.18	45d	1	0.17mi
2310 N Main St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	997	$1,687	$1.69	45d	1	0.18mi
2316 Freeman St Unit 3 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	750	$985	$1.31	9d	1	0.18mi
306 North St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$1,150	$1.21	45d	1	0.22mi
1205 Morris St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	610	$1,095	$1.80	45d	1	0.38mi
3303 N Main St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	734	$1,555	$2.12	45d	1	0.42mi
2810 Beauchamp St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	585	$1,165	$1.99	19d	2	0.49mi
200 Hogan St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1058	$1,904	$1.80	14d	1	0.57mi
1725 N Main St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	988	$2,263	$2.29	45d	1	0.62mi
1860 White Oak Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	812	$1,800	$2.22	3d	2	0.65mi
2209 Gano St Unit 3 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$1,200	$1.71	45d	1	0.67mi
2209 Gano St Unit 4 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	45d	1	0.67mi
1625 N Main St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	994	$2,009	$2.02	0d	41	0.69mi
1499 Crockett St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1062	$2,424	$2.28	26d	1	0.75mi
1514 Everett St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	970	$1,840	$1.90	21d	1	0.79mi
1611 Common St Unit 3 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	558	$1,300	$2.33	45d	1	0.80mi
1508 Summer St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	667	$1,876	$2.81	45d	1	0.80mi
401 Shelley St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	684	$1,550	$2.27	45d	1	0.82mi
1993 Silver St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,620	$2.38	26d	1	0.86mi
1550 Burnett St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	877	$2,108	$2.40	0d	36	0.93mi
825 Usener St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$2,925	$2.79	1d	27	0.94mi
831 Usener St Unit 906 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	724	$1,747	$2.41	45d	1	0.96mi
1519 McKee St Unit 5 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	650	$1,200	$1.85	16d	1	0.97mi
852 Usener St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	666	$1,704	$2.56	45d	1	0.99mi
2176 Taylor St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	703	$1,759	$2.50	45d	1	1.00mi
1250 Leona St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,990	$2.25	0d	15	1.01mi
2000 Taylor St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	916	$3,082	$3.36	1d	31	1.02mi
941 Byrne St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	650	$1,050	$1.62	45d	1	1.07mi
1550 Leona St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	835	$1,905	$2.28	3d	19	1.07mi
1556 Leona St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	905	$1,505	$1.66	45d	1	1.09mi
3816 Gano St Unit B Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$1,150	$1.64	45d	1	1.09mi
2305 Summer St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	842	$3,046	$3.62	1d	14	1.15mi
1898 Center St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	912	$1,604	$1.76	14d	1	1.20mi
2121 Edwards St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	879	$2,880	$3.27	1d	24	1.22mi
2424 Sawyer Heights St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	949	$2,003	$2.11	1d	27	1.22mi
1811 Washington Ave Unit A Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	655	$3,000	$4.58	26d	1	1.23mi
1811 Washington Ave Unit 1539414P Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	645	$3,110	$4.82	0d	1	1.23mi
1714 Mary St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,400	$2.18	45d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $204,999 Active 219 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $204,999 Active 216 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $204,999 Active 215 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $204,999 Active 214 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $204,999 Active 213 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $204,999 Active 211 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $204,999 Active 207 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $204,999 Active 206 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $204,999 Active 205 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $224,900 Active 202 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $224,900 Active 199 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,900 Active 198 DOM
13. 2026-05-14
    price $224,900 447-char remark

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    A great opportunity just minutes from downtown! Located only a minutes from downtown and minutes from the bike trail. Ideal for an investor or builder looking to capitalize on the area's rapid development. You may choose to tear down existing structure and build your new home, this property offers immense potential in a fast up and coming neighborhood with new construction and major renovations happening all around. NO HOA & NO FLOOD ZONE.

14. 2026-04-07
    price $229,900 447-char remark

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    A great opportunity just minutes from downtown! Located only a minutes from downtown and minutes from the bike trail. Ideal for an investor or builder looking to capitalize on the area's rapid development. You may choose to tear down existing structure and build your new home, this property offers immense potential in a fast up and coming neighborhood with new construction and major renovations happening all around. NO HOA & NO FLOOD ZONE.

15. 2025-11-14
    listed $235,000 Active 447-char remark

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    A great opportunity just minutes from downtown! Located only a minutes from downtown and minutes from the bike trail. Ideal for an investor or builder looking to capitalize on the area's rapid development. You may choose to tear down existing structure and build your new home, this property offers immense potential in a fast up and coming neighborhood with new construction and major renovations happening all around. NO HOA & NO FLOOD ZONE.

16. 2017-11-20
    soldstatus
17. 1997-05-27
    soldstatus $36,575

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,625 · $385/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,625 · $385/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,534
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$4,625
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,723
• − Management: −$1,723
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$5,009
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,202
• After-tax cash flow: $-337/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 35,769
• Household income: $83,148
• Rent vs Own: 42.4% rent · 57.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 994.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% White 33% Two or more races 22% Black 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -533.57%
• Current HPI: 219.5037
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.84%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+514.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $224,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $229,900 HARMLS
• 2025-11-14 Listed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2017-11-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $36,575 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,625 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.