227 Faith Ln

Tioga, TX 76271

$299,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,533 sqft · Built 2024 · SingleFamily · Active · 134 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,700/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$774
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $-209/mo
• Annual: $-2,505/yr
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.99%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-209 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (12.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (9.7% below list).
• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $262k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#656 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Tioga ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #226 of 826 in TX (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.2% in Tioga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.