Is 227 Faith Ln in Tioga, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it C- with a 5.5% cap rate and $-209/mo modeled cash flow at a $299,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 227 Faith Ln?

The modeled cap rate is 5.5% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,700/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

C- Composite 52.43

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +13.7/15.0
Cash flow +9.5/30.0
Appreciation +8.7/10.0
1% rule +4.0/10.0
Schools +4.0/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.3/5.0
DSCR +2.7/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0

$299,000

227 Faith Ln · Tioga, TX 76271

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,533 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 185 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 0.33 ac lot $195/sqft · 14% below area Est $347k · 14% under ↓ 12% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

BUILDER IS OFFERING 4% INTEREST, SPECIAL PROVISIONS APPLY. Welcome to this delightful, single-story Craftsman located in the heart of Tioga, perfectly situated near Tioga schools for added convenience. Step inside to discover an open and inviting floor plan designed for today's lifestyle. The primary suite offers a private oasis, complete with an ensuite bathroom that features dual sinks, a separate shower, linen cabinet and walk-in closet. The kitchen will delight any chef, boasting a central island, sleek granite countertops, and a walk-in pantry. A dedicated utility room enhances the home’s practicality. Relax in the cozy living room, ideal for gathering. Additional highlights include a 2-car garage, a covered rear patio, energy-efficient windows and appliances, a beautifully landscaped yard equipped with a sprinkler system and rain gutters. This home is a true find—combining style, comfort, and an unbeatable location!

Key facts

Central island
Private oasis
Ensuite bathroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-209 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (12.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (9.7% below list).
Recommended offer: $262k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.9% in Tioga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 66/100 on livability (#656 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Tioga ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #226 of 826 in TX (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.

Recommended offer $262,125 (12.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.90% ✗
Cap rate: 5.46%
Cash-on-cash: -2.99%
DSCR: 0.87
GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $346,521
List price: $299,000
Delta: -13.71%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
221 Faith Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,609 (+5%)	2mo	$315,000	$196	88
404 N Florence St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,535 (+0%)	2mo	$342,500	$223	80
713 Arapaho Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,667 (+9%)	3mo	$275,000	$165	71
615 N Lamar St	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,740 (+14%)	4mo	$400,000	$230	70
402 E Main St	0.61mi	3/2.5	1,529 (-0%)	3mo	$299,999	$196	67
718 Arapaho Dr	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,395 (-9%)	3mo	$375,000	$269	61
603 Mohawk Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,674 (+9%)	9mo	$445,000	$266	61
504 N Texas St	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,661 (+8%)	3mo	$525,000	$316	56
714 Mohawk Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,712 (+12%)	10mo	$439,900	$257	56
1008 N Main St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,605 (+5%)	9mo	$349,900	$218	52
1207 Mary Ann Ct	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,762 (+15%)	3mo	$349,000	$198	50
108 S Florence St	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,335 (-13%)	0mo	$197,000	$148	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.47% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: 16.5%
Equity multiple: 2.19×
Total profit: $100,014
Equity at exit: $216,443

10-year hold

IRR: 16.0%
Equity multiple: 4.59×
Total profit: $300,462
Equity at exit: $419,802

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 17 active · 5 under contract
Months of supply: 10.2 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $349,000 ($225/sqft)
Median days on market: 185 d
This list price: 6% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +0.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76271

Home prices YoY: 2.6%
Active inventory: 109
Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,700 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
Tax from tax record: −$649 /mo · $7,790/yr
Insurance: −$125
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
Net cashflow: $-209

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,964

Max offer price $262,125

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-39	-5% $-124	+0% $-209	+5% $-293	+10% $-378
Rent	-10% $-422	-5% $-315	+0% $-209	+5% $-102	+10% $5
Rate	-1.0pp $-58	-0.5pp $-133	base $-209	+0.5pp $-286	+1.0pp $-365

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $74,750
Closing costs: $8,970
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
618 Kyle Dr Tioga, TX	4.0	2.0	1741	$2,700	$1.55	93d	1	0.11mi

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $299,000 Active 185 DOM
2026-08-07

days on market $299,000 Active 184 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $299,000 Active 183 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $299,000 Active 182 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $299,000 Active 181 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $299,000 Active 180 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $299,000 Active 177 DOM
2026-07-29

days on market $299,000 Active 175 DOM
2026-07-27

days on market $299,000 Active 173 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $299,000 Active 172 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $299,000 Active 170 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $299,000 Active 169 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $299,000 Active 168 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $299,000 Active 167 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $299,000 Active 166 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $299,000 Active 164 DOM
2026-07-17

days on market $299,000 Active 163 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $299,000 Active 160 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $299,000 Active 159 DOM
2026-07-12

days on market $299,000 Active 158 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $299,000 Active 157 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $299,000 Active 156 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $299,000 Active 155 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $299,000 Active 153 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $299,000 Active 152 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $299,000 Active 151 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $299,000 Active 150 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $299,000 Active 149 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $299,000 Active 148 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $299,000 Active 147 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $299,000 Active 146 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $299,000 Active 145 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $299,000 Active 144 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $299,000 Active 143 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $299,000 Active 142 DOM
2026-06-23

days on market $299,000 Active 139 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $299,000 Active 138 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $299,000 Active 137 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $299,000 Active 136 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $299,000 Active 134 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $299,000 Active 133 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $299,000 Active 132 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $299,000 Active 131 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $299,000 Active 130 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $299,000 Active 129 DOM
2026-06-12

days on market $299,000 Active 128 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $299,000 Active 125 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $299,000 Active 124 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $299,000 Active 123 DOM
2026-06-05

days on market $299,000 Active 121 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax: $7,790 · $649/mo
Projected year-2 tax: $7,790 · $649/mo
Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $32,400
− Mortgage interest: −$16,749
− Property taxes: −$7,790
− Insurance: −$1,495
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,592
− Management: −$2,592
− Depreciation: −$8,698
Taxable loss: −$7,516

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,804
After-tax cash flow: $-701/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story Craftsman home in Tioga is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates focusing on curb appeal and energy efficiency.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Landscaping and irrigation system — Aesthetic improvements and better water management ↑
Both Add a smart home system — Enhances home's value and energy efficiency ↑

Schools (NCES district)

District: Tioga ISD
NCES district ID: 4842870
Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -5.00%
Median HH income: $51,096
Composite: 40.38/100
National rank: #3735
State rank: #226 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Tioga

Score: 66/100
State rank: #656
US rank: #12339

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Tioga, TX
County: Grayson · 134,540 people
City population: 1,864
Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
Population (ZIP): 1,864
Household income: $85,682
Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 134,540 people
By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Native American 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▲ 7.47%
Current HPI: 297.1567
Rent YoY: —
Metro: —
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-11.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

2026-02-04 Listed $299,000 NTREIS
2026-01-02 Listing Removed — NTREIS
2025-02-14 Price Changed $319,000 NTREIS
2024-10-25 Listed $339,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+276.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,790 · +276.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…