227 Faith Ln · Tioga, TX 76271

$299,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,533 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 134 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 0.33 ac lot $195/sqft · 15% below area Est $351k · 15% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

BUILDER IS OFFERING 4% INTEREST, SPECIAL PROVISIONS APPLY. Welcome to this delightful, single-story Craftsman located in the heart of Tioga, perfectly situated near Tioga schools for added convenience. Step inside to discover an open and inviting floor plan designed for today's lifestyle. The primary suite offers a private oasis, complete with an ensuite bathroom that features dual sinks, a separate shower, linen cabinet and walk-in closet. The kitchen will delight any chef, boasting a central island, sleek granite countertops, and a walk-in pantry. A dedicated utility room enhances the home’s practicality. Relax in the cozy living room, ideal for gathering. Additional highlights include a 2-car garage, a covered rear patio, energy-efficient windows and appliances, a beautifully landscaped yard equipped with a sprinkler system and rain gutters. This home is a true find—combining style, comfort, and an unbeatable location!

Key facts

• Central island
• Private oasis
• Ensuite bathroom

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY CRAFTSMAN
• PRIVATE OASIS
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• CENTRAL ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• DEDICATED UTILITY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-209 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (12.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $262k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.2% in Tioga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#656 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Tioga ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #226 of 826 in TX (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.

Recommended offer $262,125 (12.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.99%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $350,744
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -14.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
404 N Florence St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,535 (+0%)	0mo	$342,500	$223	82
611 Kyle Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+6%)	10mo	$355,000	$219	74
713 Arapaho Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,667 (+9%)	2mo	$275,000	$165	72
615 N Lamar St	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,740 (+14%)	3mo	$400,000	$230	72
402 E Main St	0.61mi	3/2.5	1,529 (-0%)	1mo	$299,999	$196	68
718 Arapaho Dr	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,395 (-9%)	2mo	$375,000	$269	62
603 Mohawk Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,674 (+9%)	7mo	$445,000	$266	62
401 Cutler St	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,476 (-4%)	9mo	$229,000	$155	62
504 N Texas St	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,661 (+8%)	1mo	$525,000	$316	58
714 Mohawk Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,712 (+12%)	8mo	$439,900	$257	57
1008 N Main St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,605 (+5%)	8mo	$349,900	$218	54
1207 Mary Ann Ct	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,762 (+15%)	2mo	$349,000	$198	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.47% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $100,014
• Equity at exit: $216,443

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.59×
• Total profit: $300,462
• Equity at exit: $419,802

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76271

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$649 /mo · $7,790/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $-209

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,964

Max offer price $262,125

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
618 Kyle Dr Tioga, TX	4.0	2.0	1741	$2,700	$1.55	43d	1	0.11mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 134 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 133 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 132 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 131 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 130 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 129 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $299,000 Active 128 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 125 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 124 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,000 Active 123 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,000 Active 121 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 119 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 118 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 117 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 116 DOM
16. 2026-02-04
    listed $299,000 Active 947-char remark

    Show marketing remark (947 chars)

    BUILDER IS OFFERING 4% INTEREST, SPECIAL PROVISIONS APPLY. Welcome to this delightful, single-story Craftsman located in the heart of Tioga, perfectly situated near Tioga schools for added convenience. Step inside to discover an open and inviting floor plan designed for today's lifestyle. The primary suite offers a private oasis, complete with an ensuite bathroom that features dual sinks, a separate shower, linen cabinet and walk-in closet. The kitchen will delight any chef, boasting a central island, sleek granite countertops, and a walk-in pantry. A dedicated utility room enhances the home’s practicality. Relax in the cozy living room, ideal for gathering. Additional highlights include a 2-car garage, a covered rear patio, energy-efficient windows and appliances, a beautifully landscaped yard equipped with a sprinkler system and rain gutters. This home is a true find—combining style, comfort, and an unbeatable location!

17. 2026-01-02
    historical
18. 2025-02-14
    price $319,000
19. 2024-10-25
    listed $339,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,790 · $649/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,790 · $649/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$7,790
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,592
• − Management: −$2,592
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$7,516
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,804
• After-tax cash flow: $-701/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story Craftsman home in Tioga is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates focusing on curb appeal and energy efficiency.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and irrigation system — Aesthetic improvements and better water management
• Both Add a smart home system — Enhances home's value and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and irrigation system — Aesthetic improvements and better water management ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — Enhances home's value and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tioga ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842870
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,096
• Composite: 40.38/100
• National rank: #3735
• State rank: #226 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tioga

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #656
• US rank: #12339

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tioga, TX
• City population: 1,864
• Population (ZIP): 1,864

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.47%
• Current HPI: 297.1567
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-04 Listed $299,000 NTREIS
• 2026-01-02 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-02-14 Price Changed $319,000 NTREIS
• 2024-10-25 Listed $339,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+276.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,790 · +276.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.