21877 Arriba Real

Boca Raton, FL 33433

$440,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,556 sqft · Built 1979 · Condo · Active · 159 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,667/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax + insurance: −$425
• HOA: −$1,064
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$980
• Net cashflow: $-110/mo
• Annual: $-1,321/yr
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.07%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $123,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $440k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-110 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $421k (4.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $440k).
• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $387k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#192 in FL, #3,070 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Del Prado Elementary School (math 78% / reading 78%, grade A, #149 of 2,144 statewide, top 8%, 712 students, 26% FRL); Omni Middle School (math 66% / reading 66%, grade A-, #93 of 571 statewide, top 16%, 1,128 students, 29% FRL); Olympic Heights Community High (math 52% / reading 64%, grade C, #120 of 667 statewide, top 18%, 2,602 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools average 28% FRL vs 52% district-wide (24 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 67% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Palm Beach average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 436 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $210k; list at $440k implies a 110% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.7% in Boca Raton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,667/mo this rent would consume 67% of the median local household income ($84k/yr) (locally 2900% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?