21877 Arriba Real · Boca Raton, FL 33433

$440,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,556 sqft · Condo public records · 159 Days on market

Built 1979 $1064/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully positioned on a peaceful lakefront lot within a desirable 55+ community, this spacious single-story home offers bright interiors, lush landscaping, and serene water views—an exceptional blend of comfort, functionality, and indoor-outdoor living. Inside, the open floor plan is filled with natural light and features neutral tile flooring throughout the main living areas. Expansive living and dining spaces flow seamlessly to the outdoors through large sliding glass doors, highlighting tranquil lake views and enhancing indoor-outdoor living. The home includes generously sized bedrooms, ample closet and storage space, and well-proportioned bathrooms. The kitchen offers abundant

Key facts

• Lakefront lot
• Open floor plan
• Serene water views

Tags

• LAKEFRONT LOT
• LUSH LANDSCAPING
• SERENE WATER VIEWS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• NATURAL LIGHT
• LARGE SLIDING GLASS DOORS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed with conditions; restrictions or possible restrictions
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee; Association fee $1,064 monthly; Located in a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Garage with two or more spaces (1 covered space); 1 garage space
• Security: Security guard
• Utilities: Central heating and cooling
• Home design: Single-story home; Entry located on level 1; Attached property
• Construction: Block construction; Resale property
• Exterior features: Open porch; Porch; Lakefront waterfront; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Wet bar; Built-in features; Dining area; Separate/formal dining room; High ceilings; Living/dining room configuration; Separate shower; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry / utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $440k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-110 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $421k (4.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $440k).
• Recommended offer: $387k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.7% in Boca Raton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#192 in FL, #3,070 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Del Prado Elementary School (math 78% / reading 78%, grade A, #149 of 2,144 statewide, top 8%, 712 students, 26% FRL); Omni Middle School (math 66% / reading 66%, grade A-, #93 of 571 statewide, top 16%, 1,128 students, 29% FRL); Olympic Heights Community High (math 52% / reading 64%, grade C, #120 of 667 statewide, top 18%, 2,602 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools average 28% FRL vs 52% district-wide (24 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 67% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Palm Beach average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 436 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,667/mo this rent would consume 67% of the median local household income ($84k/yr) (locally 2900% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $210k; list at $440k implies a 110% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $387,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
11. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
12. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
13. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
14. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
15. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.07%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-89,988
• Equity at exit: $65,605

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-132,717
• Equity at exit: $38,043

Cash invested: $123,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33433

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 436
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,667 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax from tax record: −$242 /mo · $2,906/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$1,064
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$980
• Net cashflow: $-110

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,806

Max offer price $420,551

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $139	-5% $14	+0% $-110	+5% $-235	+10% $-359
Rent	-10% $-479	-5% $-294	+0% $-110	+5% $74	+10% $259
Rate	-1.0pp $111	-0.5pp $2	base $-110	+0.5pp $-224	+1.0pp $-340

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $110,000
• Closing costs: $13,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22352 Martella Ave Boca Raton, FL	4.0	2.5	2466	$5,500	$2.23	26d	1	0.54mi
22447 SW 56th Ave Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1831	$3,400	$1.86	26d	1	0.68mi
8171 Hampton Wood Dr Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	2028	$5,275	$2.60	26d	1	0.76mi
8170 Hampton Wood Dr Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	2244	$4,200	$1.87	26d	1	0.77mi
8534 Via D Oro Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1866	$5,500	$2.95	20d	1	0.78mi
8534 Via D Oro Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1866	$5,500	$2.95	6d	1	0.78mi
21270 Via Eden Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.5	1812	$3,400	$1.88	9d	1	0.89mi
9180 Pine Springs Dr Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1797	$4,175	$2.32	1d	1	1.08mi
20824 Boca Ridge Dr N Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.5	1861	$3,700	$1.99	26d	1	1.16mi
9875 Palma Vista Way Boca Raton, FL	4.0	2.5	2490	$5,800	$2.33	24d	1	1.16mi
10027 Umberland Pl Boca Raton, FL	4.0	3.0	2587	$5,000	$1.93	9d	1	1.27mi
10027 Umberland Pl Boca Raton, FL	4.0	3.0	2587	$5,000	$1.93	22d	1	1.27mi
10027 Umberland Pl Unit 10027 Boca Raton, FL	4.0	3.0	2587	$5,000	$1.93	17d	1	1.27mi
10134 Boca Woods Ln Boca Raton, FL	3.0	3.0	2447	$6,800	$2.78	26d	1	1.30mi
10134 Boca Woods Ln Unit 10134 Boca Raton, FL	3.0	3.0	2447	$6,800	$2.78	9d	1	1.30mi
7619 Silver Woods Ct Boca Raton, FL	4.0	2.0	2107	$5,250	$2.49	26d	1	1.31mi
10098 Akenside Dr Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.5	2131	$4,500	$2.11	7d	1	1.33mi
10106 Akenside Dr Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.5	2131	$4,500	$2.11	1d	1	1.34mi
10069 Brickhill Dr Unit 10069 Boca Raton, FL	4.0	3.5	2486	$5,200	$2.09	14d	1	1.35mi
7572 Silver Woods Ct Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.5	2268	$6,000	$2.65	26d	1	1.36mi
22365 Dorado Dr Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1871	$2,200	$1.18	26d	1	1.40mi
10199 Akenside Dr Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.5	2020	$4,850	$2.40	9d	1	1.44mi
10222 Akenside Dr Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.5	2131	$4,975	$2.33	26d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,064 · $12,768/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscaping
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $440,000 Active 159 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $440,000 Active 156 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $440,000 Active 155 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $440,000 Active 154 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $440,000 Active 153 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $440,000 Active 151 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $479,000 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $479,000 Active 145 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $479,000 Active 142 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $479,000 Active 141 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $479,000 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $479,000 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-04-01
    price $479,000
14. 2026-01-13
    listed $499,000 Active
15. 1996-10-02
    soldstatus $210,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,906 · $242/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,652 · $304/mo
• Expected delta: +$746/yr (+$62/mo · 25.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,002
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,647
• − Property taxes: −$2,906
• − Insurance: −$2,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,480
• − Management: −$4,480
• − HOA: −$12,768
• − Depreciation: −$12,800
• Taxable loss: −$8,279
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,987
• After-tax cash flow: $666/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Beach
• NCES district ID: 1201500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,943
• Composite: 42.72/100
• National rank: #3160
• State rank: #34 of 73 in FL

Livability — Boca Raton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #192
• US rank: #3070

Category grades

Amenities D Commute B Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Palm Beach County · 1,438,312 people
• City population: 250,102
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 47,005
• Household income: $84,091
• Rent vs Own: 30.7% rent · 69.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2900.0

Population outlook (Palm Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,637,487 people
• By 2030: 1,743,255 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 1,948,712 · +19.0%
• By 2050: 2,132,979 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 2,530,027 · +54.5%
• By 2100: 2,706,979 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 15% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 5% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 10% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Palm Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 49.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+12.8 2016: D+15.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -227.85%
• Current HPI: 306.738
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.33%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+128.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $479,000 MARMLS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $499,000 MARMLS
• 1996-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,906 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.