8356 Barren Fork Ln

Bon Aqua Junction, TN 37025

$208,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 1998 · Manufactured · Active · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,259/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,091
• Tax + insurance: −$205
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $-302/mo
• Annual: $-3,619/yr
• Cap rate: 4.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.84%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.61%
• Cash to close: $58,240

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $208k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-302 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (25.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (39.5% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $126k (39.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.6%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#162 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hickman County (rural): math 20% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #107 of 139 in TN (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: East Hickman Elementary (446 students, 0% FRL); East Hickman Middle School (math 7% / reading 16%, grade F, #247 of 333 statewide, top 75%, 385 students, 0% FRL); East Hickman High School (math 2% / reading 22%, grade F, #259 of 332 statewide, top 79%, 468 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 54% district-wide (54 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 121 units permitted in Hickman County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hickman County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $208k implies a 940% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.0% in Bon Aqua Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.