8356 Barren Fork Ln · Bon Aqua Junction, TN 37025

$208,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 3 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1998 5.23 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for privacy? You will find it here 5.23 ac offering 3 bedrooms, currently one bathroom, selling as is. Owner had started a remodel on primary bathroom and has not been completed. Large bedroom, great open kitchen, didn’t and living room with fireplace. Beautiful creek runs along side property.

Key facts

• 5.23 ac
• Open kitchen
• 5.23 acre lot

Tags

• 5.23 AC
• REMODEL ON PRIMARY BATHROOM
• OPEN KITCHEN
• LIVING ROOM WITH FIREPLACE
• CREEK RUNS ALONG SIDE PROPERTY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity available
• Home design: Residential mobile home; Single-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: 5.23-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Electric range, dishwasher, and refrigerator; Living room fireplace; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $208k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-302 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (25.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (39.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (39.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.0% in Bon Aqua Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#162 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hickman County (rural): math 20% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #107 of 139 in TN (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: East Hickman Elementary (446 students, 0% FRL); East Hickman Middle School (math 7% / reading 16%, grade F, #247 of 333 statewide, top 75%, 385 students, 0% FRL); East Hickman High School (math 2% / reading 22%, grade F, #259 of 332 statewide, top 79%, 468 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 54% district-wide (54 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 121 units permitted in Hickman County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.6%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hickman County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $208k implies a 940% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,866 (39.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.84%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.65% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-49,967
• Equity at exit: $34,218

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-65,921
• Equity at exit: $23,537

Cash invested: $58,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37025

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 13.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,259 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,091
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $624/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $-302

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,640

Max offer price $154,728

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-184	-5% $-243	+0% $-302	+5% $-360	+10% $-419
Rent	-10% $-401	-5% $-351	+0% $-302	+5% $-252	+10% $-202
Rate	-1.0pp $-197	-0.5pp $-249	base $-302	+0.5pp $-355	+1.0pp $-410

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,000
• Closing costs: $6,240
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $208,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   remarks 302-char remark
3. 2026-06-21
   listed $208,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $624 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,477 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: +$853/yr (+$71/mo · 136.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,104
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,651
• − Property taxes: −$624
• − Insurance: −$1,838
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,208
• − Management: −$1,208
• − Depreciation: −$6,051
• Taxable loss: −$7,476
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,794
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,824/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hickman County
• NCES district ID: 4701860
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $39,457
• Composite: 18.14/100
• National rank: #8966
• State rank: #107 of 139 in TN

Livability — Bon Aqua Junction

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #162
• US rank: #14050

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,321

Population outlook (Hickman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,337 people
• By 2030: 22,650 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 21,310 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 19,972 · -14.4%
• By 2075: 17,073 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 14,630 · -37.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 8% Italian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hickman

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.1) · D 19.1% · R 80.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -46.7pp toward R · 2008: -14.4pp · 2024: -61.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.1 2020: R+55.4 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+27.2 2008: R+14.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.65%
• Current HPI: 359.6663
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+940.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-19 Listed $208,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $624 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.