2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
864 sqft ·
Built 1954
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 131 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$962/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$393
Tax + insurance
−$106
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$202
Net cashflow
$261/mo
Annual
$3,133/yr
Cap rate
10.47%
Cash-on-cash
14.92%
DSCR
1.66
1% rule
1.28%
Cash to close
$21,000
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $261 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($962 rent vs $75k).
It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $8k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#217 in MN, #4,547 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Lake Superior Public School District (rural): math 34% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #191 of 301 in MN (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 81 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lake County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 4.7% in Silver Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
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· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29