2612 Thornbird Pl

Boulder, CO 80304

$278,070C

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 864 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Pending · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,543/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,458
• Tax + insurance: −$246
• HOA: −$125
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$534
• Net cashflow: $180/mo
• Annual: $2,156/yr
• Cap rate: 7.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.77%
• DSCR: 1.12
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $77,860

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $278k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $180 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (8.5% below list).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($270k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $254k (8.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#24 in CO, #2,958 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, cost of living F.
• Boulder Valley School District No. Re2 (urban): math 49% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #6 of 86 in CO (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Columbine Elementary School (math 15% / reading 32%, grade F, #634 of 966 statewide, top 67%, 405 students, 64% FRL); Boulder High School (math 64% / reading 81%, grade B+, #18 of 381 statewide, top 4%, 2,074 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 16% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 256 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,688 units permitted in Boulder County in 2024 (1,136 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Boulder County population projected at +40% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $166k; list at $278k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 1.7% in Boulder — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.