3410 Toyon Ct

Soda Bay, CA 95451

$465,000C-

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,802 sqft · Built 1984 · MultiFamily · Active · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,764/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,439
• Tax + insurance: −$557
• HOA: −$27
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,000
• Net cashflow: $741/mo
• Annual: $8,898/yr
• Cap rate: 8.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.83%
• DSCR: 1.30
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $130,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath multifamily listed at $465k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $741 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $465k).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#595 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Kelseyville Unified (town): math 18% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,150 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 268 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.6% in Soda Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,764/mo this rent would consume 91% of the median local household income ($63k/yr) (locally 194% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.