6435 S Francis St

Dunsmuir, CA 96025

$189,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,752 sqft · Built 1924 · SingleFamily · Active · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,860/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax + insurance: −$210
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $268/mo
• Annual: $3,221/yr
• Cap rate: 8.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.59%
• DSCR: 1.34
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $52,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $268 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (1.6% below list).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $183k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#967 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-; Watch: cost of living D+, schools D, crime F.
• Dunsmuir Joint Union High (rural): math 25% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #163 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 50 units permitted in Siskiyou County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Siskiyou County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 10→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.8% in Dunsmuir — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.