12816 Willow Centre Dr

Houston, TX 77066

$120,000C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 675 sqft · Built 2005 · Condo · Active · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,138/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$239
• Net cashflow: $70/mo
• Annual: $841/yr
• Cap rate: 6.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.50%
• DSCR: 1.11
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $120k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $70 ($841/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $114k (5.1% below list).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (5.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Yeager El (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,680 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 830 students, 72% FRL); Bleyl Middle (math 35% / reading 45%, grade F, #646 of 1,662 statewide, top 40%, 1,451 students, 72% FRL); Cypress Creek H S (math 60% / reading 59%, grade C+, #275 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 3,366 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 43% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.7%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.