13A Forbes Dr

Hollymead, VA 22911

$431,842D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,472 sqft · Built 2026 · Condo · Active · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,726/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,265
• Tax + insurance: −$720
• HOA: −$221
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$572
• Net cashflow: $-1,052/mo
• Annual: $-12,622/yr
• Cap rate: 3.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.44%
• DSCR: 0.54
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $120,916

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $432k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (35.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (36.9% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $273k (36.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#271 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Albemarle County Public School District (rural): math 66% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #14 of 131 in VA (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Hollymead Elementary (math 87% / reading 92%, grade A+, #19 of 1,108 statewide, top 2%, 352 students, 19% FRL); Lakeside Middle (math 76% / reading 84%, grade A+, #24 of 342 statewide, top 8%, 513 students, 23% FRL); Albemarle High (math 70% / reading 85%, grade A-, #83 of 319 statewide, top 28%, 1,987 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 25% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 307 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 810 units permitted in Albemarle County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Albemarle County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.4% vs local median 2.6% in Hollymead — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.