13A Forbes Dr · Hollymead, VA 22911

$431,842

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,472 sqft · Condo · 4 Days on market

Built 2026 $175/sqft · 14% below area Est $505k · 14% under $221/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Cash flow +4.8/30.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Maple offers 2,472 sq ft of low-maintenance living across two levels in Brookhill Square, a new section of Charlottesville’s Brookhill neighborhood. This unique condo layout lives more like a single-family home, with the main level on the building’s third floor. The open main level features a large family room, spacious kitchen with island and walk-in pantry, dining area, covered porch, powder room, and coat closet. Some homes offer an optional flex room. Upstairs, the fourth floor includes a generous primary suite with private bath and walk-in closet, two additional bedrooms, a full hall bath, and a central laundry area. Brookhill Square offers new construction near green s

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Large family room
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• UNIQUE CONDO LAYOUT
• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• WALK IN PANTRY
• COVERED PORCH
• FLEX ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 13A Forbes Dr, Charlottesville, VA; Directions available
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a monthly fee of $221; Association covers management, common area maintenance, insurance, grounds maintenance, playground, reserve fund, road maintenance, sewer, snow removal, trash, and water; Community features include sidewalks, playground and trails

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 space) with garage door opener; garage faces rear; Off-street parking; asphalt driveway; Garage has electricity
• Security: Deadbolt(s); Smoke detector(s); Carbon monoxide detector(s); Radon mitigation system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Underground electric; Cable available; Fiber optic available
• Home design: Townhouse condominium; Two levels; Accessible doors; New construction (builder information available); Model: The Maple; HERS Index Score verification; Green features include energy-efficient lighting and roofing, and low-VOC paint/materials
• Construction: Stick-built construction with wood siding and stone accents; Foam and low-VOC insulation; ducts professionally air-sealed; Shingle/composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Landscaped, level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher (ENERGY STAR qualified); Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator (ENERGY STAR qualified); Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms include walk-in closet(s)
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms and one half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric heat pump, ENERGY STAR qualified equipment); Central air conditioning (ENERGY STAR qualified equipment)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Walk-in closet(s); Kitchen island; Programmable thermostat; Recessed lighting; Utility room; WaterSense fixtures; Tilt-in vinyl windows with screens (ENERGY STAR qualified)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $432k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (35.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (36.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $273k (36.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.4% vs local median 2.6% in Hollymead — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#271 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Albemarle County Public School District (rural): math 66% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #14 of 131 in VA (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Hollymead Elementary (math 87% / reading 92%, grade A+, #19 of 1,108 statewide, top 2%, 352 students, 19% FRL); Lakeside Middle (math 76% / reading 84%, grade A+, #24 of 342 statewide, top 8%, 513 students, 23% FRL); Albemarle High (math 70% / reading 85%, grade A-, #83 of 319 statewide, top 28%, 1,987 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 25% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 307 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 810 units permitted in Albemarle County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Albemarle County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $272,600 (36.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.44%
• DSCR: 0.54
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $504,536
• List price: $431,842
• Delta: -18.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-133,909
• Equity at exit: $64,389

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.57×
• Total profit: $-190,070
• Equity at exit: $37,338

Cash invested: $120,916 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22911

• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 307
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,726 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,265
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$540 /mo · $6,478/yr
• Insurance: −$180
• HOA: −$221
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$572
• Net cashflow: $-1,052

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,057

Max offer price $279,642

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-753	-5% $-903	+0% $-1,052	+5% $-1,201	+10% $-1,350
Rent	-10% $-1,267	-5% $-1,160	+0% $-1,052	+5% $-944	+10% $-836
Rate	-1.0pp $-834	-0.5pp $-942	base $-1,052	+0.5pp $-1,164	+1.0pp $-1,278

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,960
• Closing costs: $12,955
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2942 Templehof Ct Earlysville, VA	3.0	3.5	2361	$2,750	$1.16	14d	1	1.21mi
2061 Lockwood Dr Charlottesville, VA	3.0	2.5	1741	$2,975	$1.71	22d	1	1.31mi
3279 Arbor Trce Charlottesville, VA	2.0	2.5	1641	$2,100	$1.28	45d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $221 · $2,652/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $431,842 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $431,842 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   pricedays on marketlisting id $431,842 Active 1 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $411,095 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $411,095 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $411,095 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $411,095 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $411,095 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $411,095 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $411,095 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $411,095 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $411,095 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $411,095 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $411,095 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $411,095 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $411,095 Active 58 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $411,095 Active 57 DOM
18. 2026-04-03
    listed $411,095 Active 1255-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,712
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,190
• − Property taxes: −$6,478
• − Insurance: −$2,159
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,617
• − Management: −$2,617
• − HOA: −$2,652
• − Depreciation: −$12,563
• Taxable loss: −$20,563
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,935
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,687/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Albemarle County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100090
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $67,851
• Composite: 62.28/100
• National rank: #698
• State rank: #14 of 131 in VA

Livability — Hollymead

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #271
• US rank: #9656

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hollymead, VA
• County: Albemarle County · 129,350 people
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 19,107
• Household income: $128,235
• Rent vs Own: 32.4% rent · 67.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 532.0

Population outlook (Albemarle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,403 people
• By 2030: 125,829 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 137,705 · +15.3%
• By 2050: 148,058 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 172,223 · +44.2%
• By 2100: 185,628 · +55.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Two or more races 8% Black 7% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Albemarle

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.1) · D 66.3% · R 32.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.1pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 34.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.1 2020: D+33.5 2016: D+25.1 2012: D+12.0 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -236.54%
• Current HPI: 220.3768
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.04%
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+5.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $431,842 CAAR
• 2026-06-17 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2026-04-03 Listed $411,095 CAAR