4 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,332 sqft ·
Built 1915
· Other
· Active
· 122 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,401/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,293
Tax + insurance
−$163
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$504
Net cashflow
$441/mo
Annual
$5,291/yr
Cap rate
8.44%
Cash-on-cash
7.67%
DSCR
1.34
1% rule
0.97%
Cash to close
$69,020
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $246k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $441 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (2.6% below list).
It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $217k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#88 in ID) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
Caldwell District (suburban): math 17% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #90 of 92 in ID (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Van Buren Elementary School (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #330 of 357 statewide, top 92%, 561 students, 90% FRL); Caldwell Senior High School (math 16% / reading 38%, grade F, #131 of 169 statewide, top 77%, 1,474 students, 76% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 341 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,620 units permitted in Canyon County in 2024 (196 in 5+ unit buildings).
Canyon County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.1% in Caldwell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-PX9VEKFXQEWGHR
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29