82 Minglewood Ln

Kilmarnock, VA 22482

$465,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built 2024 · SingleFamily · Active · 317 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,048/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,439
• Tax + insurance: −$394
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-1,214/mo
• Annual: $-14,567/yr
• Cap rate: 3.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.58%
• DSCR: 0.53
• 1% rule: 0.44%
• Cash to close: $130,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $465k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (46.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (55.9% below list).
• It's been on market 317 days — a 12% lower offer ($409k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $205k (55.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#407 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Northumberland County Public School District (rural): math 47% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #75 of 131 in VA (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Northumberland County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $95k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 317 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 56% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.