82 Minglewood Ln · Kilmarnock, VA 22482

$465,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · SingleFamily · 317 Days on market

Built 2024 3.05 ac lot $308/sqft · 31% below area Est $675k · 31% under ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Cash flow +4.7/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brand new waterfront home on scenic Dividing Creek, just off the Chesapeake Bay. Completed in 2024, this charming coastal retreat is ideally located within minutes of Kilmarnock, Irvington, and White Stone, offering convenience with a peaceful, natural setting. This light-filled, 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home features vaulted ceilings and an open-concept layout that flows seamlessly through the Living Room, Dining Area, and Kitchen. Beautiful LVT flooring, granite countertops, a center island, and new appliances combine style and functionality. The kitchen also includes generous cabinet space, a pantry, and sliding doors that lead to a back deck overlooking the tranquil waterscape. The private primary suite offers a walk-in closet and an ensuite bath with a walk-in shower. Two guest bedrooms share a full bath with a tub/shower combination. Set on 3 acres with 254 feet of shoreline, the property includes tasteful landscaping, a circular driveway, a fire pit area, and plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors with no HOA restrictions. Just minutes from Indian Creek Yacht & Country Club, beautiful new custom home is move-in ready and perfect as a weekend getaway or full-time residence.

Key facts

• Waterfront home
• Walk-in closet
• Back deck

Tags

• WATERFRONT HOME
• SCENIC DIVIDING CREEK
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GENEROUS CABINET SPACE
• BACK DECK
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $465k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (46.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (55.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (55.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#407 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Northumberland County Public School District (rural): math 47% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #75 of 131 in VA (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Northumberland County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 317 days — a 12% lower offer ($409k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $95k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,841 (55.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 317 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 56% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.44% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.58%
• DSCR: 0.53
• GRM: 18.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $675,021
• List price: $465,000
• Delta: -31.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.34% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-13,054
• Equity at exit: $218,072

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $51,352
• Equity at exit: $343,236

Cash invested: $130,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22482

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 18.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,048 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,439
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,601/yr
• Insurance: −$194
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-1,214

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,585

Max offer price $250,556

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $116,250
• Closing costs: $13,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $465,000 Active 317 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $465,000 Active 316 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $465,000 Active 315 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $465,000 Active 314 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $465,000 Active 313 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $465,000 Active 312 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $465,000 Active 311 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $465,000 Active 308 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $465,000 Active 307 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $465,000 Active 306 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $465,000 Active 305 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $465,000 Active 302 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $465,000 Active 301 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $465,000 Active 300 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $465,000 Active 299 DOM
16. 2026-03-20
    price $465,000 1199-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1286 chars)

    Brand new waterfront home on scenic Dividing Creek, just off the Chesapeake Bay. Ideal for a floating dock, this could make a kayak and nature lovers dream property! The home was completed in 2024, and is a charming coastal retreat is ideally located within minutes of Kilmarnock, Irvington, and White Stone, offering convenience with a peaceful, natural setting. This light-filled, 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home features vaulted ceilings and an open-concept layout that flows seamlessly through the Living Room, Dining Area, and Kitchen. Beautiful LVT flooring, granite countertops, a center island, and new appliances combine style and functionality. The kitchen also includes generous cabinet space, a pantry, and sliding doors that lead to a back deck overlooking the tranquil waterscape. The private primary suite offers a walk-in closet and an ensuite bath with a walk-in shower. Two guest bedrooms share a full bath with a tub/shower combination. Set on 3 acres with 254 feet of shoreline, the property includes tasteful landscaping, a circular driveway, a fire pit area, and plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors with no HOA restrictions. Just minutes from Indian Creek Yacht & Country Club, this home is move-in ready and perfect as a weekend getaway or full-time residence.

17. 2026-03-20
    price $465,000 1286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1286 chars)

    Brand new waterfront home on scenic Dividing Creek, just off the Chesapeake Bay. Ideal for a floating dock, this could make a kayak and nature lovers dream property! The home was completed in 2024, and is a charming coastal retreat is ideally located within minutes of Kilmarnock, Irvington, and White Stone, offering convenience with a peaceful, natural setting. This light-filled, 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home features vaulted ceilings and an open-concept layout that flows seamlessly through the Living Room, Dining Area, and Kitchen. Beautiful LVT flooring, granite countertops, a center island, and new appliances combine style and functionality. The kitchen also includes generous cabinet space, a pantry, and sliding doors that lead to a back deck overlooking the tranquil waterscape. The private primary suite offers a walk-in closet and an ensuite bath with a walk-in shower. Two guest bedrooms share a full bath with a tub/shower combination. Set on 3 acres with 254 feet of shoreline, the property includes tasteful landscaping, a circular driveway, a fire pit area, and plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors with no HOA restrictions. Just minutes from Indian Creek Yacht & Country Club, this home is move-in ready and perfect as a weekend getaway or full-time residence.

18. 2026-02-01
    status Active 1286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1286 chars)

    Brand new waterfront home on scenic Dividing Creek, just off the Chesapeake Bay. Ideal for a floating dock, this could make a kayak and nature lovers dream property! The home was completed in 2024, and is a charming coastal retreat is ideally located within minutes of Kilmarnock, Irvington, and White Stone, offering convenience with a peaceful, natural setting. This light-filled, 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home features vaulted ceilings and an open-concept layout that flows seamlessly through the Living Room, Dining Area, and Kitchen. Beautiful LVT flooring, granite countertops, a center island, and new appliances combine style and functionality. The kitchen also includes generous cabinet space, a pantry, and sliding doors that lead to a back deck overlooking the tranquil waterscape. The private primary suite offers a walk-in closet and an ensuite bath with a walk-in shower. Two guest bedrooms share a full bath with a tub/shower combination. Set on 3 acres with 254 feet of shoreline, the property includes tasteful landscaping, a circular driveway, a fire pit area, and plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors with no HOA restrictions. Just minutes from Indian Creek Yacht & Country Club, this home is move-in ready and perfect as a weekend getaway or full-time residence.

19. 2025-12-29
    price $495,000 1286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1286 chars)

    Brand new waterfront home on scenic Dividing Creek, just off the Chesapeake Bay. Ideal for a floating dock, this could make a kayak and nature lovers dream property! The home was completed in 2024, and is a charming coastal retreat is ideally located within minutes of Kilmarnock, Irvington, and White Stone, offering convenience with a peaceful, natural setting. This light-filled, 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home features vaulted ceilings and an open-concept layout that flows seamlessly through the Living Room, Dining Area, and Kitchen. Beautiful LVT flooring, granite countertops, a center island, and new appliances combine style and functionality. The kitchen also includes generous cabinet space, a pantry, and sliding doors that lead to a back deck overlooking the tranquil waterscape. The private primary suite offers a walk-in closet and an ensuite bath with a walk-in shower. Two guest bedrooms share a full bath with a tub/shower combination. Set on 3 acres with 254 feet of shoreline, the property includes tasteful landscaping, a circular driveway, a fire pit area, and plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors with no HOA restrictions. Just minutes from Indian Creek Yacht & Country Club, this home is move-in ready and perfect as a weekend getaway or full-time residence.

20. 2025-12-29
    price $495,000 1199-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1286 chars)

    Brand new waterfront home on scenic Dividing Creek, just off the Chesapeake Bay. Ideal for a floating dock, this could make a kayak and nature lovers dream property! The home was completed in 2024, and is a charming coastal retreat is ideally located within minutes of Kilmarnock, Irvington, and White Stone, offering convenience with a peaceful, natural setting. This light-filled, 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home features vaulted ceilings and an open-concept layout that flows seamlessly through the Living Room, Dining Area, and Kitchen. Beautiful LVT flooring, granite countertops, a center island, and new appliances combine style and functionality. The kitchen also includes generous cabinet space, a pantry, and sliding doors that lead to a back deck overlooking the tranquil waterscape. The private primary suite offers a walk-in closet and an ensuite bath with a walk-in shower. Two guest bedrooms share a full bath with a tub/shower combination. Set on 3 acres with 254 feet of shoreline, the property includes tasteful landscaping, a circular driveway, a fire pit area, and plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors with no HOA restrictions. Just minutes from Indian Creek Yacht & Country Club, this home is move-in ready and perfect as a weekend getaway or full-time residence.

21. 2025-12-29
    status Active 1199-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1286 chars)

    Brand new waterfront home on scenic Dividing Creek, just off the Chesapeake Bay. Ideal for a floating dock, this could make a kayak and nature lovers dream property! The home was completed in 2024, and is a charming coastal retreat is ideally located within minutes of Kilmarnock, Irvington, and White Stone, offering convenience with a peaceful, natural setting. This light-filled, 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home features vaulted ceilings and an open-concept layout that flows seamlessly through the Living Room, Dining Area, and Kitchen. Beautiful LVT flooring, granite countertops, a center island, and new appliances combine style and functionality. The kitchen also includes generous cabinet space, a pantry, and sliding doors that lead to a back deck overlooking the tranquil waterscape. The private primary suite offers a walk-in closet and an ensuite bath with a walk-in shower. Two guest bedrooms share a full bath with a tub/shower combination. Set on 3 acres with 254 feet of shoreline, the property includes tasteful landscaping, a circular driveway, a fire pit area, and plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors with no HOA restrictions. Just minutes from Indian Creek Yacht & Country Club, this home is move-in ready and perfect as a weekend getaway or full-time residence.

22. 2025-12-29
    status Active 1286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1286 chars)

    Brand new waterfront home on scenic Dividing Creek, just off the Chesapeake Bay. Ideal for a floating dock, this could make a kayak and nature lovers dream property! The home was completed in 2024, and is a charming coastal retreat is ideally located within minutes of Kilmarnock, Irvington, and White Stone, offering convenience with a peaceful, natural setting. This light-filled, 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home features vaulted ceilings and an open-concept layout that flows seamlessly through the Living Room, Dining Area, and Kitchen. Beautiful LVT flooring, granite countertops, a center island, and new appliances combine style and functionality. The kitchen also includes generous cabinet space, a pantry, and sliding doors that lead to a back deck overlooking the tranquil waterscape. The private primary suite offers a walk-in closet and an ensuite bath with a walk-in shower. Two guest bedrooms share a full bath with a tub/shower combination. Set on 3 acres with 254 feet of shoreline, the property includes tasteful landscaping, a circular driveway, a fire pit area, and plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors with no HOA restrictions. Just minutes from Indian Creek Yacht & Country Club, this home is move-in ready and perfect as a weekend getaway or full-time residence.

23. 2025-12-20
    status Pending 1199-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1286 chars)

    Brand new waterfront home on scenic Dividing Creek, just off the Chesapeake Bay. Ideal for a floating dock, this could make a kayak and nature lovers dream property! The home was completed in 2024, and is a charming coastal retreat is ideally located within minutes of Kilmarnock, Irvington, and White Stone, offering convenience with a peaceful, natural setting. This light-filled, 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home features vaulted ceilings and an open-concept layout that flows seamlessly through the Living Room, Dining Area, and Kitchen. Beautiful LVT flooring, granite countertops, a center island, and new appliances combine style and functionality. The kitchen also includes generous cabinet space, a pantry, and sliding doors that lead to a back deck overlooking the tranquil waterscape. The private primary suite offers a walk-in closet and an ensuite bath with a walk-in shower. Two guest bedrooms share a full bath with a tub/shower combination. Set on 3 acres with 254 feet of shoreline, the property includes tasteful landscaping, a circular driveway, a fire pit area, and plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors with no HOA restrictions. Just minutes from Indian Creek Yacht & Country Club, this home is move-in ready and perfect as a weekend getaway or full-time residence.

24. 2025-12-20
    status Pending 1286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1286 chars)

    Brand new waterfront home on scenic Dividing Creek, just off the Chesapeake Bay. Ideal for a floating dock, this could make a kayak and nature lovers dream property! The home was completed in 2024, and is a charming coastal retreat is ideally located within minutes of Kilmarnock, Irvington, and White Stone, offering convenience with a peaceful, natural setting. This light-filled, 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home features vaulted ceilings and an open-concept layout that flows seamlessly through the Living Room, Dining Area, and Kitchen. Beautiful LVT flooring, granite countertops, a center island, and new appliances combine style and functionality. The kitchen also includes generous cabinet space, a pantry, and sliding doors that lead to a back deck overlooking the tranquil waterscape. The private primary suite offers a walk-in closet and an ensuite bath with a walk-in shower. Two guest bedrooms share a full bath with a tub/shower combination. Set on 3 acres with 254 feet of shoreline, the property includes tasteful landscaping, a circular driveway, a fire pit area, and plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors with no HOA restrictions. Just minutes from Indian Creek Yacht & Country Club, this home is move-in ready and perfect as a weekend getaway or full-time residence.

25. 2025-09-17
    price $545,000 1199-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1286 chars)

    Brand new waterfront home on scenic Dividing Creek, just off the Chesapeake Bay. Ideal for a floating dock, this could make a kayak and nature lovers dream property! The home was completed in 2024, and is a charming coastal retreat is ideally located within minutes of Kilmarnock, Irvington, and White Stone, offering convenience with a peaceful, natural setting. This light-filled, 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home features vaulted ceilings and an open-concept layout that flows seamlessly through the Living Room, Dining Area, and Kitchen. Beautiful LVT flooring, granite countertops, a center island, and new appliances combine style and functionality. The kitchen also includes generous cabinet space, a pantry, and sliding doors that lead to a back deck overlooking the tranquil waterscape. The private primary suite offers a walk-in closet and an ensuite bath with a walk-in shower. Two guest bedrooms share a full bath with a tub/shower combination. Set on 3 acres with 254 feet of shoreline, the property includes tasteful landscaping, a circular driveway, a fire pit area, and plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors with no HOA restrictions. Just minutes from Indian Creek Yacht & Country Club, this home is move-in ready and perfect as a weekend getaway or full-time residence.

26. 2025-09-17
    price $545,000 1286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1286 chars)

    Brand new waterfront home on scenic Dividing Creek, just off the Chesapeake Bay. Ideal for a floating dock, this could make a kayak and nature lovers dream property! The home was completed in 2024, and is a charming coastal retreat is ideally located within minutes of Kilmarnock, Irvington, and White Stone, offering convenience with a peaceful, natural setting. This light-filled, 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home features vaulted ceilings and an open-concept layout that flows seamlessly through the Living Room, Dining Area, and Kitchen. Beautiful LVT flooring, granite countertops, a center island, and new appliances combine style and functionality. The kitchen also includes generous cabinet space, a pantry, and sliding doors that lead to a back deck overlooking the tranquil waterscape. The private primary suite offers a walk-in closet and an ensuite bath with a walk-in shower. Two guest bedrooms share a full bath with a tub/shower combination. Set on 3 acres with 254 feet of shoreline, the property includes tasteful landscaping, a circular driveway, a fire pit area, and plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors with no HOA restrictions. Just minutes from Indian Creek Yacht & Country Club, this home is move-in ready and perfect as a weekend getaway or full-time residence.

27. 2025-07-27
    listed $560,000 Active 1199-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1199 chars)

    Brand new waterfront home on scenic Dividing Creek, just off the Chesapeake Bay. Completed in 2024, this charming coastal retreat is ideally located within minutes of Kilmarnock, Irvington, and White Stone, offering convenience with a peaceful, natural setting. This light-filled, 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home features vaulted ceilings and an open-concept layout that flows seamlessly through the Living Room, Dining Area, and Kitchen. Beautiful LVT flooring, granite countertops, a center island, and new appliances combine style and functionality. The kitchen also includes generous cabinet space, a pantry, and sliding doors that lead to a back deck overlooking the tranquil waterscape. The private primary suite offers a walk-in closet and an ensuite bath with a walk-in shower. Two guest bedrooms share a full bath with a tub/shower combination. Set on 3 acres with 254 feet of shoreline, the property includes tasteful landscaping, a circular driveway, a fire pit area, and plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors with no HOA restrictions. Just minutes from Indian Creek Yacht & Country Club, beautiful new custom home is move-in ready and perfect as a weekend getaway or full-time residence.

28. 2025-07-25
    listed $560,000 Active 1286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1286 chars)

    Brand new waterfront home on scenic Dividing Creek, just off the Chesapeake Bay. Ideal for a floating dock, this could make a kayak and nature lovers dream property! The home was completed in 2024, and is a charming coastal retreat is ideally located within minutes of Kilmarnock, Irvington, and White Stone, offering convenience with a peaceful, natural setting. This light-filled, 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home features vaulted ceilings and an open-concept layout that flows seamlessly through the Living Room, Dining Area, and Kitchen. Beautiful LVT flooring, granite countertops, a center island, and new appliances combine style and functionality. The kitchen also includes generous cabinet space, a pantry, and sliding doors that lead to a back deck overlooking the tranquil waterscape. The private primary suite offers a walk-in closet and an ensuite bath with a walk-in shower. Two guest bedrooms share a full bath with a tub/shower combination. Set on 3 acres with 254 feet of shoreline, the property includes tasteful landscaping, a circular driveway, a fire pit area, and plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors with no HOA restrictions. Just minutes from Indian Creek Yacht & Country Club, this home is move-in ready and perfect as a weekend getaway or full-time residence.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,601 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,813 · $318/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,212/yr (+$184/mo · 138.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 91% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,581
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,047
• − Property taxes: −$1,601
• − Insurance: −$3,122
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,966
• − Management: −$1,966
• − Depreciation: −$13,527
• Taxable loss: −$23,650
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,676
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,891/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northumberland County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102730
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -39.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $52,524
• Composite: 47.93/100
• National rank: #2209
• State rank: #75 of 131 in VA

Livability — Kilmarnock

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #407
• US rank: #17011

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,171

Population outlook (Northumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,873 people
• By 2030: 11,609 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 10,938 · -7.9%
• By 2050: 10,235 · -13.8%
• By 2075: 8,922 · -24.9%
• By 2100: 7,288 · -38.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 21% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Serbian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Northumberland

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.2) · D 39.0% · R 60.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -21.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.2 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+27.6 2012: R+14.9 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.34%
• Current HPI: 232.4115
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-17.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $465,000 CBRAR
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $465,000 NNAR
• 2026-02-01 Relisted — NNAR
• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $495,000 NNAR
• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $495,000 CBRAR
• 2025-12-29 Relisted — CBRAR
• 2025-12-29 Relisted — NNAR
• 2025-12-20 Pending — CBRAR
• 2025-12-20 Pending — NNAR
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $545,000 CBRAR
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $545,000 NNAR
• 2025-07-27 Listed $560,000 CBRAR
• 2025-07-25 Listed $560,000 NNAR

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,601 · +402.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.