3 Mud Creek Rd

Kennedy, NY 14747

$64,900B+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,464 sqft · Built 1949 · Other · Pending · 105 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,189/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$340
• Tax + insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $491/mo
• Annual: $5,891/yr
• Cap rate: 15.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.42%
• DSCR: 2.44
• 1% rule: 1.83%
• Cash to close: $18,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $65k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $491 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $59k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#986 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Randolph Central School District (rural): math 46% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #370 of 590 in NY (top 63%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $65k implies a 116% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.