3 Mud Creek Rd · Kennedy, NY 14747

$64,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,464 sqft · Other public records · 105 Days on market

Built 1949 2.19 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bed, 2 bath property situated on 12.2.acres. Detached two plus car garage and shed Bank owned property.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• 2.19 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• DETACHED 2 PLUS CAR GARAGE
• METAL ROOF
• RANDOLPH SCHOOL DISTRICT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $491 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#986 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Randolph Central School District (rural): math 46% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #370 of 590 in NY (top 63%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $65k implies a 116% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $59,059 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.42%
• DSCR: 2.44
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.4% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $37,076
• Equity at exit: $27,023

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.00×
• Total profit: $90,785
• Equity at exit: $40,040

Cash invested: $18,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14747

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,189 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$340
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $974/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $491

Break-even live

Break-even rent $568

Max offer price $64,900

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $536	-5% $513	+0% $491	+5% $469	+10% $446
Rent	-10% $397	-5% $444	+0% $491	+5% $538	+10% $585
Rate	-1.0pp $524	-0.5pp $507	base $491	+0.5pp $474	+1.0pp $457

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,225
• Closing costs: $1,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2025-01-29
   status Pending
2. 2025-01-02
   price $64,900
3. 2024-10-16
   listed $79,000 Active
4. 2020-05-27
   soldstatus $30,000 Closed Sale or Rented 107-char remark

   Show marketing remark (107 chars)

   3 bed, 2 bath property situated on 12.2.acres. Detached two plus car garage and shed Bank owned property.

5. 2020-04-29
   status Pending Sale 107-char remark

   Show marketing remark (107 chars)

   3 bed, 2 bath property situated on 12.2.acres. Detached two plus car garage and shed Bank owned property.

6. 2020-04-20
   status Active 107-char remark

   Show marketing remark (107 chars)

   3 bed, 2 bath property situated on 12.2.acres. Detached two plus car garage and shed Bank owned property.

7. 2020-04-20
   status Pending Sale 107-char remark

   Show marketing remark (107 chars)

   3 bed, 2 bath property situated on 12.2.acres. Detached two plus car garage and shed Bank owned property.

8. 2020-03-31
   price $32,000 107-char remark

   Show marketing remark (107 chars)

   3 bed, 2 bath property situated on 12.2.acres. Detached two plus car garage and shed Bank owned property.

9. 2020-02-21
   price $36,000 107-char remark

   Show marketing remark (107 chars)

   3 bed, 2 bath property situated on 12.2.acres. Detached two plus car garage and shed Bank owned property.

10. 2020-02-11
    price $40,000 107-char remark

    Show marketing remark (107 chars)

    3 bed, 2 bath property situated on 12.2.acres. Detached two plus car garage and shed Bank owned property.

11. 2020-02-04
    listed $45,000 Active 107-char remark

    Show marketing remark (107 chars)

    3 bed, 2 bath property situated on 12.2.acres. Detached two plus car garage and shed Bank owned property.

12. 2020-01-31
    historical
13. 2019-12-13
    listed $45,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,270
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,635
• − Property taxes: −$974
• − Insurance: −$324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,142
• − Management: −$1,142
• − Depreciation: −$1,888
• Taxable income: $5,166
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,240
• After-tax cash flow: $4,652/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Randolph Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624090
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $42,406
• Composite: 43.26/100
• National rank: #3053
• State rank: #370 of 590 in NY

Livability — Kennedy

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #986
• US rank: #19268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing B- Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,035
• Population (ZIP): 2,035

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• Current HPI: 292.7985
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+44.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2025-01-29 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2025-01-02 Price Changed $64,900 UNYREIS
• 2024-10-16 Listed $79,000 UNYREIS
• 2020-05-27 Sold (MLS) $30,000 WNYREIS
• 2020-04-29 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2020-04-20 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2020-04-20 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2020-03-31 Price Changed $32,000 WNYREIS
• 2020-02-21 Price Changed $36,000 WNYREIS
• 2020-02-11 Price Changed $40,000 WNYREIS
• 2020-02-04 Listed $45,000 WNYREIS
• 2020-01-31 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2019-12-13 Listed $45,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,938 · -7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.