208 Grafton Turnpike Rd

Canaan, NH 03741

$314,900D-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,406 sqft · Built 1985 · Manufactured · Active · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,464/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,651
• Tax + insurance: −$426
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $-131/mo
• Annual: $-1,577/yr
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.79%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $88,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $315k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-131 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $292k (7.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (21.8% below list).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $246k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#95 in NH) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Mascoma Valley Reg School District (rural): math 36% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #56 of 98 in NH (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Canaan Elementary School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #82 of 263 statewide, top 34%, 225 students, 33% FRL); Indian River School (math 27% / reading 46%, grade F, #53 of 96 statewide, top 56%, 313 students, 39% FRL); Mascoma Valley Regional High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #76 of 90 statewide, top 85%, 338 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 487 units permitted in Grafton County in 2024 (127 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grafton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $315k implies a 215% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.7% in Canaan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.