2528 Oak Leaf Ln

Maytown, AL 35005

$119,900C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Active · 306 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,132/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$161
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $104/mo
• Annual: $1,252/yr
• Cap rate: 7.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.73%
• DSCR: 1.17
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $33,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $104 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (5.6% below list).
• It's been on market 306 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#443 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Adamsville Elementary School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #568 of 627 statewide, top 94%, 302 students, 83% FRL); Minor Middle School (math 0% / reading 18%, grade F, #235 of 257 statewide, top 93%, 728 students, 88% FRL); Minor High School (math 4% / reading 8%, grade F, #275 of 305 statewide, top 90%, 915 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 49% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 8% at this address vs 20% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Jefferson County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $96k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 306 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.