2528 Oak Leaf Ln · Maytown, AL 35005

$119,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 306 Days on market

Built 1975 0.35 ac lot $88/sqft · 24% below area Est $157k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come check out this beautiful 3 bedroom/2 bathroom. This home has been updated with new LVT flooring, modern fixtures, and fresh new paint. This home features a large, flat fenced backyard, with a storage shed, and a gorgeous fireplace!

Key facts

• Fresh paint
• Luxury flooring
• Gorgeous fireplace

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHED
• LUXURY FLOORING
• MODERN FIXTURES
• FRESH PAINT
• GORGEOUS FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $104 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (5.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#443 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Adamsville Elementary School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #568 of 627 statewide, top 94%, 302 students, 83% FRL); Minor Middle School (math 0% / reading 18%, grade F, #235 of 257 statewide, top 93%, 728 students, 88% FRL); Minor High School (math 4% / reading 8%, grade F, #275 of 305 statewide, top 90%, 915 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 49% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 8% at this address vs 20% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Jefferson County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 306 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $96k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 306 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.73%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $156,904
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: -23.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5138 Martin Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-4%)	2mo	$111,900	$85	76
5024 Oak Leaf Cir	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,227 (-10%)	9mo	$143,000	$117	68
2749 Moore Rd	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,408 (+3%)	11mo	$155,000	$110	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-12,792
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-2,611
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35005

• Home prices YoY: -3.9%
• Active inventory: 60
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,132 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,333/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,000

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $172	-5% $138	+0% $104	+5% $70	+10% $36
Rent	-10% $15	-5% $60	+0% $104	+5% $149	+10% $194
Rate	-1.0pp $165	-0.5pp $135	base $104	+0.5pp $73	+1.0pp $42

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4985 Karen Ln Adamsville, AL	3.0	1.5	1008	$1,095	$1.09	25d	1	0.25mi
2856 Valleyview Cir Adamsville, AL	3.0	1.0	962	$1,050	$1.09	45d	1	0.49mi
1411 Bucks Dr Adamsville, AL	3.0	1.0	1392	$1,331	$0.96	12d	1	0.88mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $119,900 Active 306 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 303 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 302 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 301 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 300 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 298 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,900 Active 295 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 294 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 293 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,900 Active 292 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,900 Active 288 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 287 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 286 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 285 DOM
15. 2026-04-27
    price $119,900 236-char remark

    Show marketing remark (236 chars)

    Come check out this beautiful 3 bedroom/2 bathroom. This home has been updated with new LVT flooring, modern fixtures, and fresh new paint. This home features a large, flat fenced backyard, with a storage shed, and a gorgeous fireplace!

16. 2025-12-11
    price $129,900 236-char remark

    Show marketing remark (236 chars)

    Come check out this beautiful 3 bedroom/2 bathroom. This home has been updated with new LVT flooring, modern fixtures, and fresh new paint. This home features a large, flat fenced backyard, with a storage shed, and a gorgeous fireplace!

17. 2025-11-20
    price $139,900 236-char remark

    Show marketing remark (236 chars)

    Come check out this beautiful 3 bedroom/2 bathroom. This home has been updated with new LVT flooring, modern fixtures, and fresh new paint. This home features a large, flat fenced backyard, with a storage shed, and a gorgeous fireplace!

18. 2025-10-09
    price $144,900 236-char remark

    Show marketing remark (236 chars)

    Come check out this beautiful 3 bedroom/2 bathroom. This home has been updated with new LVT flooring, modern fixtures, and fresh new paint. This home features a large, flat fenced backyard, with a storage shed, and a gorgeous fireplace!

19. 2025-09-22
    price $149,900 236-char remark

    Show marketing remark (236 chars)

    Come check out this beautiful 3 bedroom/2 bathroom. This home has been updated with new LVT flooring, modern fixtures, and fresh new paint. This home features a large, flat fenced backyard, with a storage shed, and a gorgeous fireplace!

20. 2025-08-14
    listed $154,900 Active 236-char remark

    Show marketing remark (236 chars)

    Come check out this beautiful 3 bedroom/2 bathroom. This home has been updated with new LVT flooring, modern fixtures, and fresh new paint. This home features a large, flat fenced backyard, with a storage shed, and a gorgeous fireplace!

21. 2018-07-31
    soldstatus $95,900
22. 2018-07-26
    soldstatus $95,500 103-char remark

    Show marketing remark (103 chars)

    Lovely home in Adamsville with 3BR and 2BA. Has large laundry room, large fenced backyard, big bedrooms

23. 2018-06-12
    listed $95,500 103-char remark

    Show marketing remark (103 chars)

    Lovely home in Adamsville with 3BR and 2BA. Has large laundry room, large fenced backyard, big bedrooms

24. 2017-12-17
    soldstatus $35,920 Sold
25. 2017-11-18
    historical
26. 2017-11-15
    price $40,500
27. 2017-08-30
    listed $45,000 Active
28. 2008-06-27
    soldstatus $81,500
29. 2004-07-20
    soldstatus $69,900
30. 1990-04-11
    soldstatus $46,500
31. 1989-02-01
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,333 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,333 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,581
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,333
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,086
• − Management: −$1,086
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable loss: −$728
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$175
• After-tax cash flow: $1,427/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

Livability — Maytown

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #443
• US rank: #23503

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,143

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 38% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.72%
• Current HPI: 237.5788
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+199.8% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $119,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $129,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $139,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $144,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-09-22 Price Changed $149,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-08-14 Listed $154,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2018-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $95,900 Public Records
• 2018-07-26 Sold (MLS) $95,500 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2018-06-12 Listed $95,500 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2017-12-17 Sold (MLS) $35,920 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2017-11-18 Delisted — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2017-11-15 Price Changed $40,500 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2017-08-30 Listed $45,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2008-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $81,500 Public Records
• 2004-07-20 Sold (Public Records) $69,900 Public Records
• 1990-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $46,500 Public Records
• 1989-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,333 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.