2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,059 sqft ·
Built 2025
· Land
· Pending
· 62 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,082/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,394
Tax + insurance
−$443
HOA
−$55
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$437
Net cashflow
$-247/mo
Annual
$-2,966/yr
Cap rate
5.18%
Cash-on-cash
-3.99%
DSCR
0.82
1% rule
0.78%
Cash to close
$74,421
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $266k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-247 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (13.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (21.7% below list).
It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $208k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $16k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (5.4% local appreciation)).
Location reads 68/100 on livability (#202 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
Caroline County Public Schools (rural): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #17 of 24 in MD (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Greensboro Elementary School (math 9% / reading 14%, grade F, #567 of 860 statewide, top 67%, 785 students, 81% FRL); Lockerman Middle School (math 6% / reading 30%, grade F, #165 of 225 statewide, top 75%, 866 students, 66% FRL); North Caroline High School (math 39% / reading 61%, grade D+, #106 of 222 statewide, top 48%, 1,226 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 48% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 59 units permitted in Caroline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Caroline County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
4 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-PYTPKF6RBZ187N
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29