5352 16th Pl SW Unit G2

Golden Gate, FL 34116

$189,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 970 sqft · Built 1985 · Condo · Active · 87 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,098/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax + insurance: −$222
• HOA: −$532
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $-87/mo
• Annual: $-1,044/yr
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.97%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $52,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $189k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-87 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (8.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($178k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $174k (8.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#455 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mike Davis Elementary School (math 50% / reading 47%, grade D, #1,152 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 574 students, 71% FRL); Golden Gate Middle School (math 50% / reading 43%, grade D+, #297 of 571 statewide, top 52%, 1,054 students, 60% FRL); Golden Gate High School (math 38% / reading 39%, grade F, #321 of 667 statewide, top 49%, 1,764 students, 53% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 44% at this address vs 58% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Collier average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.2%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $119k; list at $189k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.