1656 Pine St

Oroville, CA 95965

$475,000C

9 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,611 sqft · Built 1910 · MultiFamily · Active · 273 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,448/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,491
• Tax + insurance: −$717
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,144
• Net cashflow: $1,096/mo
• Annual: $13,149/yr
• Cap rate: 9.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.89%
• DSCR: 1.44
• 1% rule: 1.15%
• Cash to close: $133,000

Investor read

• This is a 1×3.0bd/1.0ba + 3×2.0bd/1.0ba units multifamily listed at $475k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive. Per door: $274/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $475k).
• It's been on market 273 days — a 12% lower offer ($418k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $418k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,136 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: schools D, cost of living D, crime F.
• Oroville Union High (town): math 19% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #300 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 9 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask is 6% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 4.6% in Oroville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,448/mo this rent would consume 123% of the median local household income ($53k/yr) (locally 892% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 273 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?