301 Maui Cir

Union City, CA 94587

$270,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Pending · 78 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,873/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax + insurance: −$450
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$813
• Net cashflow: $1,194/mo
• Annual: $14,326/yr
• Cap rate: 11.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.95%
• DSCR: 1.84
• 1% rule: 1.43%
• Cash to close: $75,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $270k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $270k).
• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $254k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#150 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, amenities D, cost of living F.
• New Haven Unified (suburban): math 43% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #85 of 517 in CA (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tom Kitayama Elementary (615 students, 34% FRL); Cesar Chavez Middle (1,012 students, 49% FRL); James Logan High (math 46% / reading 71%, grade C, #223 of 1,170 statewide, top 19%, 3,315 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 150 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $76k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 1.7% in Union City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($134k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Awning — Worn fabric
• Minor: Kitchen Countertops — Tiled, could be replaced