301 Maui Cir · Union City, CA 94587

$270,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured · 78 Days on market

Good condition $161/sqft · 24% above area Est $218k · 24% over ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wow! 1680 sq ft 3 bedroom/2 bath home in the Tropics Senior Park on a cul-de-sac! New flooring, updated electrical and plumbing. Comes fully equipped with appliances including newer oven and stove! Large fully covered patio room provides more space for an office or crafts! High-end chair lift system installed! Updated hall shower! Extra storage room and shed! Extra parking pad! Garden area! Community pool and spa! This is a rare opportunity!

Key facts

• Updated electrical
• New flooring
• Updated plumbing

Tags

• NEW FLOORING
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL
• UPDATED PLUMBING
• FULLY EQUIPPED APPLIANCES
• LARGE FULLY COVERED PATIO ROOM
• EXTRA STORAGE ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $270k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $270k).
• Recommended offer: $254k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 1.7% in Union City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#150 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, amenities D, cost of living F.
• New Haven Unified (suburban): math 43% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #85 of 517 in CA (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tom Kitayama Elementary (615 students, 34% FRL); Cesar Chavez Middle (1,012 students, 49% FRL); James Logan High (math 46% / reading 71%, grade C, #223 of 1,170 statewide, top 19%, 3,315 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 150 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($134k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $76k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $253,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.95%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $218,491
• List price: $270,000
• Delta: 23.58%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
222 Hula Cir #222	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,620 (-4%)	12mo	$390,000	$241	75
289 Maui Cir	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,541 (-8%)	12mo	$432,500	$281	75
174 Kona Cir	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,532 (-9%)	12mo	$428,000	$279	68
269 Oahu	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-14%)	1mo	$285,000	$198	67
324 Waikiki Cir	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-14%)	3mo	$165,000	$115	65
51 Palm Dr	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-14%)	9mo	$225,000	$156	58
198 Hawaii Cir	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,464 (-13%)	10mo	$185,000	$126	58
167 Kona Cir	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-14%)	7mo	$247,000	$172	57
537 Cumana Cir	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-14%)	11mo	$200,000	$139	50
123 Madrone Way	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-14%)	13mo	$196,000	$136	39
4141 Deepcreek #106	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-14%)	9mo	$130,000	$90	38
4141 Deep Creed Rd #129	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-14%)	12mo	$235,000	$163	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.49% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $34,264
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $135,938
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94587

• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,873 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$338 /mo · $4,050/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$813
• Net cashflow: $1,194

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,362

Max offer price $270,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,380	-5% $1,287	+0% $1,194	+5% $1,101	+10% $1,007
Rent	-10% $888	-5% $1,041	+0% $1,194	+5% $1,347	+10% $1,500
Rate	-1.0pp $1,330	-0.5pp $1,263	base $1,194	+0.5pp $1,124	+1.0pp $1,053

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3842 Cardinal Ter Fremont, CA	3.0	2.5	1607	$4,100	$2.55	19d	1	0.45mi
33877 Raven Ter Fremont, CA	2.0	1.5	1315	$3,700	$2.81	16d	1	0.51mi
3716 Harlequin Ter Fremont, CA	4.0	2.5	1855	$4,500	$2.43	45d	1	0.52mi
32725 Hilmar St Union City, CA	4.0	3.0	2080	$4,440	$2.13	3d	1	0.77mi
33411 Madelyn Ter Union City, CA	2.0	2.5	1441	$3,798	$2.64	19d	1	0.80mi
4123 Asimuth Cir Union City, CA	3.0	1.5	1280	$3,350	$2.62	45d	1	0.86mi
32805 Palmdale Ct Union City, CA	4.0	3.0	1962	$4,900	$2.50	0d	1	0.88mi
4292 Comet Cir Union City, CA	3.0	1.5	1250	$2,950	$2.36	26d	1	0.96mi
34426 Bentley Pl Fremont, CA	3.0	2.0	1290	$3,500	$2.71	22d	1	0.96mi
2449 Almaden Blvd Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1565	$4,495	$2.87	3d	1	0.98mi
4163 Rainbow Ter Fremont, CA	4.0	2.5	1474	$3,695	$2.51	0d	1	1.15mi
4132 Jamaica Ter Fremont, CA	3.0	1.5	1166	$2,890	$2.48	0d	1	1.16mi
3307 San Marco Ct Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1349	$3,900	$2.89	4d	1	1.24mi
2506 Balmoral St Union City, CA	4.0	2.5	2008	$3,500	$1.74	14d	1	1.25mi
34897 Busby Way Fremont, CA	3.0	2.5	1950	$5,000	$2.56	19d	1	1.27mi
4806 Balthazar Ter Fremont, CA	3.0	3.0	1755	$4,250	$2.42	0d	1	1.27mi
3221 San Carlos Way Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1396	$3,795	$2.72	5d	1	1.30mi
32468 Deborah Dr Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1340	$3,949	$2.95	26d	1	1.35mi
4402 Queen Anne Dr Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1357	$4,200	$3.10	3d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $270,000 Pending 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $270,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $270,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $270,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $270,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $270,000 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $270,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $270,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $270,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-04-22
    price $298,800 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Wow! 1680 sq ft 3 bedroom/2 bath home in the Tropics Senior Park on a cul-de-sac! New flooring, updated electrical and plumbing. Comes fully equipped with appliances including newer oven and stove! Large fully covered patio room provides more space for an office or crafts! High-end chair lift system installed! Updated hall shower! Extra storage room and shed! Extra parking pad! Garden area! Community pool and spa! This is a rare opportunity!

11. 2026-03-24
    listed $310,000 Active 445-char remark

    Show marketing remark (445 chars)

    Wow! 1680 sq ft 3 bedroom/2 bath home in the Tropics Senior Park on a cul-de-sac! New flooring, updated electrical and plumbing. Comes fully equipped with appliances including newer oven and stove! Large fully covered patio room provides more space for an office or crafts! High-end chair lift system installed! Updated hall shower! Extra storage room and shed! Extra parking pad! Garden area! Community pool and spa! This is a rare opportunity!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 18% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,478
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$4,050
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,718
• − Management: −$3,718
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable income: $10,663
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,559
• After-tax cash flow: $11,767/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 3-bedroom/2-bath manufactured home in the Tropics Senior Park is in good condition with cosmetic updates needed. It offers a spacious living area, a fully covered patio, and a high-end chair lift system. The property is move-in ready with a few minor repairs and maintenance items to address.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Awning — Worn fabric
• Minor Kitchen Countertops — Tiled, could be replaced

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Resale Replace awning fabric — Improves curb appeal and functionality
• Resale Replace kitchen countertops — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Awning · Worn fabric	Minor	$500–3,000
Kitchen Countertops · Tiled, could be replaced	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace awning fabric — Improves curb appeal and functionality ↑
• Resale Replace kitchen countertops — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Haven Unified
• NCES district ID: 0626910
• Math proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 18.00%
• Median HH income: $87,202
• Composite: 51.21/100
• National rank: #1754
• State rank: #85 of 517 in CA

Livability — Union City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #150
• US rank: #5027

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Union City, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 67,464
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 67,464
• Household income: $133,715
• Rent vs Own: 35.3% rent · 64.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1565.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 55% Hispanic / Latino 19% White 15% Two or more races 10% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 47% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 13% Tagalog/Filipino 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1280.49%
• Current HPI: 343.0333
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.49%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $298,800 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-24 Listed $310,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR