103 Dyson Rd

Austin, AR 72007

$171,500C

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,079 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Active · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,750/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$899
• Tax + insurance: −$174
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $309/mo
• Annual: $3,712/yr
• Cap rate: 8.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.73%
• DSCR: 1.34
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $48,020

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $172k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $309 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $172k).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $169k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#21 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Cabot School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #29 of 238 in AR (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 185 units permitted in Lonoke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lonoke County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 9 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.6% in Austin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.