2 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,200 sqft ·
Built 1982
· Condo
· Active
· 45 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,845/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$708
Tax + insurance
−$212
HOA
−$260
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$387
Net cashflow
$277/mo
Annual
$3,324/yr
Cap rate
8.76%
Cash-on-cash
8.79%
DSCR
1.39
1% rule
1.37%
Cash to close
$37,800
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $135k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $277 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $131k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Francis Howell R-III (suburban): math 53% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #11 of 324 in MO (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Fairmount Elem. (math 43% / reading 56%, grade D, #284 of 1,115 statewide, top 30%, 1,013 students, 18% FRL); Saeger Middle (math 56% / reading 61%, grade B, #24 of 391 statewide, top 6%, 701 students, 12% FRL); Francis Howell Central High (math 36% / reading 74%, grade C, #65 of 521 statewide, top 13%, 1,805 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 16% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 297 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).
St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Current owner paid $20k; list at $135k implies a 589% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 4.2% in St. Peters — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
CashFlowRE · CFR-Q036MWAK8Y0WQY
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29