63 Arthur Dr

Larkfield-Wikiup, CA 95403

$129,000C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 735 sqft · Built 1967 · Manufactured · Active · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,282/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax + insurance: −$215
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$689
• Net cashflow: $1,701/mo
• Annual: $20,415/yr
• Cap rate: 22.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.52%
• DSCR: 3.51
• 1% rule: 2.54%
• Cash to close: $36,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $129k).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $127k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Santa Rosa High (urban): math 31% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #703 of 1,400 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 199 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 22.1% vs local median 2.1% in Larkfield-Wikiup — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.