63 Arthur Dr · Larkfield-Wikiup, CA 95403

$129,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 735 sqft · Manufactured · 27 Days on market

Built 1967 Good condition Est $110k · 17% over ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to a view of the Vineyard off you new back porch. 3 bedroom 1 bath remodeled home with new windows, new bathroom and new kitchen and flooring.

Key facts

• Remodeled bathroom
• Remodeled kitchen
• Newer windows

Tags

• REMODELED KITCHEN
• REMODELED BATHROOM
• UPDATED FLOORING
• NEWER WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Mobile Estates park
• Financial info: Land lease amount applies (space rent listed separately)
• HOA & community: No association; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking with space for 3 vehicles
• Utilities: Public sewer; No on-site power production
• Home design: Manufactured in park (single wide); Made by Fleetwood; Metal skirting; Land lease (space rent applies); Located in a senior community
• Construction: Updated/remodeled
• Exterior features: Covered patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range; Free standing refrigerator; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub/shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled condition; Kitchen and family room combined; Family room with attached deck
• Laundry & utility: Stacked washer and dryer included; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.1% vs local median 2.1% in Larkfield-Wikiup — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Santa Rosa High (urban): math 31% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #703 of 1,400 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 199 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,065 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.52%
• DSCR: 3.51
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $110,250
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
65 Arthur Dr	0.01mi	2/1.0 (-1)	710 (-3%)	11mo	$150,000	$211	79
69 Arthur Dr	0.02mi	2/1.0 (-1)	702 (-4%)	18mo	$139,500	$199	72
504 Colonial Park Dr	0.17mi	2/1.0 (-1)	800 (+9%)	5mo	$95,000	$119	69
546 Colonial Park Dr	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	800 (+9%)	4mo	$120,000	$150	67
445 Colonial Park Dr	0.19mi	2/1.0 (-1)	800 (+9%)	8mo	$90,000	$113	65
70 Colonial Park Dr	0.32mi	2/1.5 (-1)	750 (+2%)	18mo	$115,000	$153	60
623 Colonial Park Dr	0.27mi	2/1.0 (-1)	800 (+9%)	13mo	$98,000	$123	57
23 Ellie Dr	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	840 (+14%)	6mo	$122,700	$146	56
5481 Ranchito Way	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	784 (+7%)	7mo	$72,500	$92	48
5501 Ranchito Way	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	840 (+14%)	2mo	$130,000	$155	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $78,194
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.76×
• Total profit: $171,777
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95403

• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,282 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$161 /mo · $1,935/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$689
• Net cashflow: $1,701

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,128

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1145 Shiloh Rd Windsor, CA	3.0	1.0–2.0	776	$4,395	$5.66	8d	14	1.22mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,000 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,000 Active 8 DOM
16. 2026-05-22
    listed $129,000 Active
17. 2023-07-29
    status Pending 150-char remark

    Show marketing remark (150 chars)

    Welcome to a view of the Vineyard off you new back porch. 3 bedroom 1 bath remodeled home with new windows, new bathroom and new kitchen and flooring.

18. 2023-07-27
    soldstatus $130,000 Closed 150-char remark

    Show marketing remark (150 chars)

    Welcome to a view of the Vineyard off you new back porch. 3 bedroom 1 bath remodeled home with new windows, new bathroom and new kitchen and flooring.

19. 2023-06-27
    historical Contingent (No Show) 150-char remark

    Show marketing remark (150 chars)

    Welcome to a view of the Vineyard off you new back porch. 3 bedroom 1 bath remodeled home with new windows, new bathroom and new kitchen and flooring.

20. 2023-06-08
    listed $149,000 Active 150-char remark

    Show marketing remark (150 chars)

    Welcome to a view of the Vineyard off you new back porch. 3 bedroom 1 bath remodeled home with new windows, new bathroom and new kitchen and flooring.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,384
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,935
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,151
• − Management: −$3,151
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $19,524
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,686
• After-tax cash flow: $15,730/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This charming mobile home is move-in ready with tasteful updates and a fresh exterior. A great opportunity for an investor to enjoy affordable living in a welcoming community.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace outdoor light fixture — Improves safety and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace outdoor light fixture — Improves safety and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa High
• NCES district ID: 0635830
• Math proficiency: 31% —
• Reading proficiency: 47% —
• Median HH income: $62,000
• Composite: 37.25/100
• National rank: #8972
• State rank: #703 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Larkfield-Wikiup

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Larkfield-Wikiup, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 45,570
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 45,806
• Household income: $98,191
• Rent vs Own: 45.2% rent · 54.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1770.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 13% Asian 5% Native American 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -679.94%
• Current HPI: 254.3106
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.10%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-13.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $129,000 BAREIS
• 2023-07-29 Pending — BAREIS
• 2023-07-27 Sold (MLS) $130,000 BAREIS
• 2023-06-27 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2023-06-08 Listed $149,000 BAREIS