163 N Lake Shore Dr

Birchwood Lakes, PA 18328

$319,900D

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,107 sqft · Built 1988 · SingleFamily · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,423/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax + insurance: −$478
• HOA: −$61
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$509
• Net cashflow: $-302/mo
• Annual: $-3,623/yr
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.04%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $89,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $320k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-302 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (16.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (24.3% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $242k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,407 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Delaware Valley Hs (math 77% / reading 75%, grade A-, #25 of 437 statewide, top 6%, 1,418 students, 37% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 76% at this address vs 54% district-wide (+22 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Delaware Valley SD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 213 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $180k; list at $320k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$55k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.