163 N Lake Shore Dr · Birchwood Lakes, PA 18328

$319,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,107 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1988 0.96 ac lot Est $327k · at est. $61/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

IMMACULATE 4BED/2BA CONTEMPORARY HOME WITH AN OPEN FLOOR PLAN AND SEASONAL LAKE VIEWS. The main living area of the home features a modern eat-in kitchen with breakfast bar and living room with vaulted ceilings and a stone fireplace. The abundance of windows, 2 sets of sliders and skylights afford extra natural light in the living room & kitchen. On the main living floor there are additionally 2 spacious bedrooms and a full bath The private master located on the upper level of home has an ensuite bath & private balcony looking out to the lake. The walkout lower level offers a huge family room with pool table and 1 additional BR. The lower level is piped out to add a half bath. Th

Key facts

• Private balcony
• Huge family room
• Seasonal lake views

Tags

• SEASONAL LAKE VIEWS
• MODERN EAT-IN KITCHEN
• STONE FIREPLACE
• ABUNDANCE OF WINDOWS
• PRIVATE BALCONY
• HUGE FAMILY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $390 (about $32.50/month); Community lake

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Unpaved parking; Parking pad
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential single-family home
• Construction: Wood siding; Asphalt and fiberglass roof; Has basement
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Sloped, wooded lot with views; Outbuilding, workshop, storage shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Gas oven; Electric range; Electric oven
• Flooring: Hardwood; Ceramic tile; Tile; Concrete
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Zoned heating; Propane and natural gas options; Hot water heating; Fireplace insert; Electric heating; Ceiling fans; Wall unit cooling
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Cathedral ceilings; Bar; Living room stone fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Partially finished full basement with walk-up/walk-out access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-302 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (16.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (24.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,407 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Delaware Valley Hs (math 77% / reading 75%, grade A-, #25 of 437 statewide, top 6%, 1,418 students, 37% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 76% at this address vs 54% district-wide (+22 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Delaware Valley SD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 213 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$55k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $180k; list at $320k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $242,305 (24.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.04%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $326,585
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
154 N Lake Shore Dr	0.07mi	4/3.0	2,210 (+5%)	0mo	$545,000	$247	82
103 Yvonne Ct	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,114 (+0%)	12mo	$285,000	$135	69
111 Babette Ct	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,140 (+2%)	8mo	$292,000	$136	67
109 Lake Dr	0.47mi	4/3.0	2,048 (-3%)	7mo	$497,000	$243	62
317 Marcel Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,093 (-1%)	1mo	$242,000	$116	57
565 Silver Lake Rd	0.40mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,257 (+7%)	16mo	$390,000	$173	45
215 Lake Dr	0.44mi	4/2.5	1,840 (-13%)	16mo	$300,000	$163	41
108 Saint Dr	0.62mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,932 (-8%)	20mo	$197,000	$102	30
107 Adrienne Ct	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,932 (-8%)	21mo	$300,000	$155	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $155,037
• Equity at exit: $288,191

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.27×
• Total profit: $471,759
• Equity at exit: $621,495

Cash invested: $89,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18328

• Home prices YoY: 18.1%
• Active inventory: 213
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,423 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$344 /mo · $4,131/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$61
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$509
• Net cashflow: $-302

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,805

Max offer price $266,567

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-121	-5% $-211	+0% $-302	+5% $-392	+10% $-483
Rent	-10% $-493	-5% $-398	+0% $-302	+5% $-206	+10% $-110
Rate	-1.0pp $-141	-0.5pp $-221	base $-302	+0.5pp $-385	+1.0pp $-469

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,975
• Closing costs: $9,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $61 · $732/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $319,900 Pending 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,900 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,900 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,900 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,900 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,900 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,900 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   remarks 691-char remark
9. 2026-06-10
   listed $319,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,131 · $344/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,593 · $383/mo
• Expected delta: +$462/yr (+$38/mo · 11.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,077
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,919
• − Property taxes: −$4,131
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,326
• − Management: −$2,326
• − HOA: −$732
• − Depreciation: −$9,306
• Taxable loss: −$9,264
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,223
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,400/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Delaware Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207530
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $64,202
• Composite: 46.95/100
• National rank: #2359
• State rank: #121 of 539 in PA

Livability — Birchwood Lakes

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1407
• US rank: #17785

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety D User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,061

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 6% Romanian 6% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 38.13%
• Current HPI: 248.4494
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+77.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $319,900 PWMLS
• 2005-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,131 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.