509 Scott St

Tye, TX 79563

$98,500A-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1952 · SingleFamily · Pending · 79 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,495/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$517
• Tax + insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $549/mo
• Annual: $6,594/yr
• Cap rate: 12.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.91%
• DSCR: 2.06
• 1% rule: 1.52%
• Cash to close: $27,580

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $98k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $549 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $93k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($681 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#631 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools F.
• Merkel ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #460 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.